ING, Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n ara se\u00e7im zaferinin Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 olabilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fini, bahis piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n yaz sonuna kadar bir devir teslimi fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Ortaya konan senaryoda, Keir Starmer\u2019dan ge\u00e7i\u015fi h\u0131zland\u0131rmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan olas\u0131 kabine istifalar\u0131 yer al\u0131rken, daha uzun bir liderlik yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n da alternatif olarak masada kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, son bir ayda siyasi risk primi ta\u015f\u0131mad\u0131; bu fiyatlama d\u00fczeni, piyasalar\u0131n Burnham\u2019\u0131n maliye planlar\u0131n\u0131n gilt piyasas\u0131n\u0131 sarsmayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda rahat oldu\u011funu ima ediyor. Buna ra\u011fmen ING, genel olarak y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimli EUR\/GBP g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan maliye man\u015fetlerini potansiyel bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveledi ve 2022\u2019den bu yana GBP ile giltlerin b\u00fct\u00e7e kaynakl\u0131 olumsuz haberlere kar\u015f\u0131 tolerans\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu savundu. Bankan\u0131n ana senaryosu, bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce \u201colays\u0131z\u201d olarak niteledi\u011fi toplant\u0131yla da peki\u015fen, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (BoE) ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelmeyece\u011fi beklentisine dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n belirleyici ara se\u00e7im galibiyetinin, yaz sonuna do\u011fru bir liderlik ge\u00e7i\u015finin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bahis piyasalar\u0131 bunu yans\u0131t\u0131yor; mevcut oranlar, sonbahar gelmeden yeni bir Ba\u015fbakan g\u00f6r\u00fclme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %80\u2019in \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu y\u00fcksek kanaat, bir siyasi de\u011fi\u015fim d\u00f6nemine pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eu an sterlinde belirgin bir stres i\u015fareti yok; \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen volatilite yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviye olan %6,2 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor. Bu da piyasan\u0131n Burnham h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin bozucu maliye politikalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmeyece\u011fine inand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bizce bu g\u00fcven yanl\u0131\u015f olabilir ve bu durum yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ana g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, EUR\/GBP\u2019nin 0,8800\u2019e do\u011fru hareketini \u00f6ng\u00f6rerek euroyu sterline kar\u015f\u0131 tercih etmek y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. BoE belirgin \u015fekilde \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d konumunda; son T\u00dcFE enflasyonunun %2,1 gelmesi ve 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yaln\u0131zca %0,1 ile zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 bu duru\u015fu destekliyor. Bu politika \u00e7er\u00e7evesi, \u00f6zellikle siyasi man\u015fetler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131k\u00e7a sterlini k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2022 sonbahar\u0131ndaki gilt piyasas\u0131 krizinin haf\u0131zas\u0131, beklenmedik maliye a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n sert bir reaksiyon \u00fcretebilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu nedenle A\u011fustos ve Eyl\u00fcl vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa seviyesinin \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) ucuz EUR\/GBP al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) al\u0131yoruz. Bu strateji, piyasada siyasi risk yeniden fiyatlan\u0131r ve sterlin ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015farsa, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bahis piyasalar\u0131, Burnham sonras\u0131 yaz sonuna kadar Ba\u015fbakan de\u011fi\u015fimini %80\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Sterlin sakin kalsa da maliye man\u015fetleri riski b\u00fcy\u00fcyor; ING, EUR\/GBP\u2019nin 0,8800\u2019e y\u00fckseli\u015fine ve ucuz al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47772,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49731","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49731"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49731\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47772"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49731"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49731"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}