UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, USD\/SGD\u2019nin 1,2900 seviyesinde kapand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, modelinin ise Singapur Dolar\u0131 Nominal Efektif D\u00f6viz Kurunu (S$NEER) orta noktan\u0131n %1,75 \u00fczerinde g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini belirtti. Kurum, mevcut seansta S$NEER\u2019in orta noktan\u0131n %1,50\u2013%2,00 \u00fczerinde bir bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; bu da ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n genel olarak desteklendi\u011fi bir ortamda USD\/SGD i\u00e7in 1,2872\u20131,2937 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya genelinde hareketler kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131: Bank Indonesia\u2019n\u0131n (BI) faizleri 25 baz puan art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan USD\/IDR %0,16 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 17.710\u2019a geriledi. USD\/INR %0,28 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 94,53\u2019e inerken, USD\/KRW %1,50 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 1.539,30\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Malezya ringgiti dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %1,3 de\u011fer kaybederek 4,1170\u2019e geriledi ve USD\/SGD %0,15 art\u0131\u015fla 1,2900 oldu. Piyasalar, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin e\u011filimini diren\u00e7li ABD verileriyle birlikte de\u011ferlendirirken risk i\u015ftah\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde iyile\u015fti; k\u0131sa vadeli faiz getirilerini y\u00fcksek tutarak dolar\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fcce kar\u015f\u0131n, Singapur dolar\u0131n\u0131n konumunu dikkat \u00e7ekici bi\u00e7imde korudu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. S$NEER bant i\u00e7inde yukar\u0131 seviyelerde, orta noktan\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,75 \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da USD\/SGD\u2019yi olduk\u00e7a dar bir aral\u0131kta tutuyor. Bu durum, Singapur Para Otoritesi\u2019nin (MAS) enflasyonu y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kur politikas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler bu dinami\u011fi her iki taraftan da destekliyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE fiyat endeksi enflasyonun %2,9 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, May\u0131s ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporu 210.000 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etti; bu da Fed\u2019i \u015fahin patikada tutuyor. Singapur\u2019da ise May\u0131s \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,8 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu da MAS\u2019\u0131n Ekim\u2019deki politika toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde kurda zay\u0131flamaya izin vermesi i\u00e7in fazla bir gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rakm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u015eahin Fed ile \u015fahin MAS aras\u0131ndaki bu \u00e7eki\u015fme, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/SGD\u2019de yatay seyrin s\u00fcrmesine; b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla 1,2850\u20131,2950 koridorunda kal\u0131nmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatiliteden getiri sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefleyen stratejiler i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli. K\u0131sa straddle veya strangle gibi USD\/SGD opsiyon sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n cazip bir pozisyon oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik temel risk, ABD makro verilerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir s\u00fcrpriz ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ve bunun Fed beklentilerinde sert bir yeniden fiyatlamaya yol a\u00e7mas\u0131d\u0131r. Tarihsel olarak ABD i\u015fsizli\u011finde beklenmedik bir s\u0131\u00e7rama dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in kataliz\u00f6r olmu\u015f, bu da USD\/SGD\u2019yi mevcut destek seviyelerinin alt\u0131na itebilmi\u015ftir. \u00d6te yandan Malezya ringgiti ve Kore wonu gibi b\u00f6lgede zay\u0131flayan para birimleri, paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 gereken temel dolar talebine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ama SGD diren\u00e7li: UOB, S$NEER\u2019in orta noktan\u0131n %1,75 \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, USD\/SGD\u2019nin 1,2872\u20131,2937 band\u0131nda yatay seyredece\u011fini; \u015fahin Fed-MAS dengesiyle volatilitenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49720","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49720","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49720"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49720\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49720"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49720"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49720"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}