Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc uzatarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.121 dolarla bir haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 4.120 dolar b\u00f6lgesi civar\u0131nda dengelendi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, alt\u0131n\u0131 haftal\u0131k bazda %1,7\u2019lik kayba ve \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisine do\u011fru g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bask\u0131n\u0131n temelinde, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Juneteenth tatili nedeniyle s\u0131\u011f i\u015flem ko\u015fullar\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in 2026\u2019da para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin beklentilerini yukar\u0131 revize etmesi yer al\u0131yor. Fed \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc faizleri sabit tuttu; ekonomik faaliyetin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fine ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret ederken, projeksiyonlar politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019da en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Ayr\u0131ca enflasyonu %2 hedefine geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcrme taahh\u00fcd\u00fc vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev fiyatlamalar\u0131, Fed\u2019in Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %77\u2019ye i\u015faret ediyor; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce %40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise %90 seviyesinde. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.147,83 dolar seviyesinde; daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tepe ve daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diplerden olu\u015fan bir yap\u0131 izlenirken RSI 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor ve MACD -7,15\u2019te bulunuyor. \u015eu ana kadar 4.100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde destek korunmu\u015f olsa da odak, y\u0131l i\u00e7i dip olan 4.023 dolar ve ard\u0131ndan 3.885 dolar seviyelerinde. Diren\u00e7ler ise 4.370 dolar ve devam\u0131nda 4.585 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi; bu, kay\u0131tlar\u0131n tutulmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek y\u0131ll\u0131k al\u0131m oldu.<\/p>\n
Federal Reserve\u2019\u00fcn \u015fahin duru\u015fu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n i\u00e7in en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 agresif bi\u00e7imde fiyatl\u0131yor; Ekim ay\u0131nda ad\u0131m at\u0131lmas\u0131na %77 olas\u0131l\u0131k verilmesi, getiri \u00fcretmeyen varl\u0131klar i\u00e7in belirgin bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturuyor. Bu nedenle stratejimiz, ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon almak y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, son ekonomik verilerle de destekleniyor: ABD\u2019de i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 may\u0131sta %3,7\u2019ye gerilerken \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %3,1 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmaya devam ediyor; bu da Fed\u2019in rotas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in fazla neden b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinin ilk safhalar\u0131nda zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir; 2023 ba\u015f\u0131nda benzer ko\u015fullar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bir fiyat d\u00fczeltmesine yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 buna \u00f6rnektir. Bu desenin tekrarlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan, 4.023 dolardaki y\u0131l i\u00e7i dip seviyesinin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtimaline oynayarak getiri elde etmek i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. \u00d6zellikle, i\u015flemin olgunla\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in zaman tan\u0131mas\u0131 nedeniyle, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 4.000 dolar civar\u0131nda olan A\u011fustos vadeli put\u2019larda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, beklenen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumdan faydalanmak i\u00e7in net ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir y\u00f6ntem sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun \u00fczerinde kalan (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak veya bear call spread kurmak, bu negatif g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc gelir yaratarak ifade etmenin ba\u015fka bir yolu. 4.370 dolar \u00e7evresindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc direncin \u015fimdilik sa\u011flam bir tavan olu\u015fturdu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferse, yatay kal\u0131rsa hatta s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselse bile\u2014short kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece\u2014avantaj sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, b\u00fcy\u00fck alt\u0131n destekli ETF\u2019lerden belirgin \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6zl\u00fcyoruz; SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), ay ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana varl\u0131klar\u0131ndan 50 tonun \u00fczerinde alt\u0131n azaltt\u0131. Bu durum, kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ba\u015fka yerlerde daha y\u00fcksek getiri beklentisiyle pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck para\u201dn\u0131n bu t\u00fcr \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinden \u00f6nce gelir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenme alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ana anlat\u0131 olarak kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korumas\u0131 muhtemel; bu da alt\u0131n\u0131 di\u011fer para birimlerini kullanan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in daha pahal\u0131 hale getirir. Bir sonraki hamlemiz i\u00e7in kritik tetikleyici olarak, Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) 106,50 seviyesindeki son zirvesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda alarm zilleri: XAU\/USD 4.121$\u2019la haftan\u0131n dibinde, \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Fed\u2019in 2026 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali ve Ekimde %77 olas\u0131l\u0131k bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; 4.023$ k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 3.885$ g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47795,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49719","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49719"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49719\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}