DBS Group Research, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ile \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan aras\u0131nda var\u0131lan ge\u00e7ici bir mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n (MoU), H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 t\u00fcm trafi\u011fe yeniden a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve nihai anla\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik m\u00fczakerelerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti. D\u00fczenleme, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sona erdirme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki ifade edilmi\u015f hedefin ard\u0131ndan gelirken; n\u00fckleer ve di\u011fer kilit ba\u015fl\u0131klarda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n devam etti\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Brent, yakla\u015f\u0131k 76 ABD dolar\u0131na geriledi. Bu hareket, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hafifletirken y\u00fckselen ithalat faturalar\u0131yla ili\u015fkili stresin de azalmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor. S\u00f6z konusu arka plan, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemde bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalan petrole duyarl\u0131 Asya para birimlerine s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa destek sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Yeni ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Brent petrol\u00fcn 76 dolara gerilemesini ge\u00e7ici bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften daha fazlas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu \u00e7eyre\u011fin ba\u015flar\u0131nda fiyatlar\u0131 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutan jeopolitik risk primi belirgin \u015fekilde geriledi. Yak\u0131n vadede petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 80 dolar olan A\u011fustos vadeli Brent kontratlar\u0131nda \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satarak pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu durumun, 2015\u2019teki n\u00fckleer anla\u015fma sonras\u0131 d\u00f6neme benzer tarihsel paralellikleri bulunuyor. S\u00f6z konusu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol ihracat\u0131 zaman i\u00e7inde k\u00fcresel arza g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde katk\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015f ve fiyatlar\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nden (EIA) gelen g\u00fcncel raporlar, ge\u00e7en hafta ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda hafif bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor; bu da piyasada bu anla\u015fma \u00f6ncesinde dahi yumu\u015fama sinyali oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130ran\u2019dan gelebilecek bu yeni potansiyel arz\u0131n, yaz s\u00fcr\u00fc\u015f sezonu boyunca fiyatlar \u00fczerinde belirgin bir tavan olu\u015fturmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Asya ekonomileri \u00fczerindeki ilk etki net bi\u00e7imde pozitif; buna paralel olarak d\u00f6viz pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00fcncelliyoruz. Ge\u00e7en ay artan enerji maliyetleri ortam\u0131nda dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda rekor dip seviyeyi test eden Hindistan rupisi, toparlanma i\u015faretleri veriyor ve bug\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u015flemlerde %0,5 de\u011fer kazan\u0131yor. \u0130yile\u015fen ticaret \u015fartlar\u0131ndan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla Hindistan rupisi (INR) ve Tayland baht\u0131 (THB) gibi para birimlerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck yak\u0131t maliyetleri; marj bask\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015fayan ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k ve sanayi sekt\u00f6rlerine de do\u011frudan rahatlama sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Uluslararas\u0131 Hava Ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Birli\u011fi (IATA), jet yak\u0131t\u0131 maliyetlerinin bu y\u0131l havayolu i\u015fletme giderlerinin %31\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011funu ve bunun be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi oldu\u011funu yak\u0131n zamanda not etti. Bu nedenle, ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde ve enerji girdi maliyetlerine duyarl\u0131 se\u00e7ili sanayi \u015firketlerinde uzun pozisyonlar olu\u015fturuyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar nefes ald\u0131: ABD-\u0130ran ge\u00e7ici MoU sonras\u0131 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131, Brent 76 dolara indi. Risk primi gerilerken enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131yor; Asya para birimleri, ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k ve sanayi marjlar\u0131 destek buluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47763,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49716","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49716","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49716"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49716\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49716"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49716"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49716"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}