{"id":49715,"date":"2026-06-19T16:12:16","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T16:12:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/fed-sahinlesirken-dolar-13-ayin-zirvesine-cikti-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-sert-dusus-eur-usdde-toparlanma-senaryosunu-guclendiriyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-19T16:12:16","modified_gmt":"2026-06-19T16:12:16","slug":"fed-sahinlesirken-dolar-13-ayin-zirvesine-cikti-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-sert-dusus-eur-usdde-toparlanma-senaryosunu-guclendiriyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fed-sahinlesirken-dolar-13-ayin-zirvesine-cikti-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-sert-dusus-eur-usdde-toparlanma-senaryosunu-guclendiriyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed \u015fahinle\u015firken dolar 13 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f EUR\/USD\u2019de toparlanma senaryosunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD dolar endeksi (DXY), Fed\u2019in 2012\u2019de serinin ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana noktasal grafikte (dot plot) en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015fahin kaymay\u0131 sergilemesinin ard\u0131ndan May\u0131s 2025\u2019ten bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Toplant\u0131y\u0131 izleyen \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnde dolar %1,5 y\u00fckseldi. Hareket, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n L\u00fcbnan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek geri \u00e7ekilmesi sonras\u0131 \u0130svi\u00e7re mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n (MoU) imzalanmas\u0131n\u0131n ertelendi\u011fi aksayan diplomasiyle de ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi.<\/p>\n

Ancak petrol fiyatlar\u0131 son bir ayda sert geriledi ve IEA\u2019n\u0131n son ayl\u0131k raporu, arz fazlas\u0131 petrol piyasas\u0131n\u0131n 2027\u2019ye kadar uzayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Kurum, son d\u00f6nemdeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en hacimlerdeki art\u0131\u015fla ili\u015fkilendirerek, sevkiyatlar\u0131n May\u0131s\u2019taki 9,6 mb\/g seviyesinden haziran ba\u015f\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 12 mb\/g\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini; bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki gemiden gemiye transferlerle desteklendi\u011fini tahmin etti. Enerji kaynakl\u0131 dezenflasyonun y\u0131l sonuna ve 2027\u2019ye do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilece\u011fi bir ortamda, ABD enflasyonunun zirveye yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu belirtilirken, ilave Fed faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fi ifade ediliyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ECB\u2019nin, farkl\u0131 politika \u00e7er\u00e7eveleri ve yetki alanlar\u0131 nedeniyle faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 konusunda daha fazla manevra alan\u0131 korudu\u011fu vurgulan\u0131yor. MUFG ayr\u0131ca 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde EUR\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Fed’in \u015eahin Kaymas\u0131 Dolar Rallisini Besledi<\/h3>\n

ABD dolar\u0131 13 ay\u0131n zirvesine t\u0131rman\u0131rken, Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 107,50 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu hamle, Federal Rezerv\u2019in son dot plotunda g\u00f6r\u00fclen belirgin \u015fahin kaymaya ve y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in medyan faiz tahmininin yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekilmesine do\u011frudan bir tepki niteli\u011finde. Piyasa, Fed\u2019in enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki sert duru\u015funu fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Enerji Fiyatlar\u0131 ve Euro G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Ayr\u0131\u015fma Yarat\u0131yor<\/h3>\n

Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, bu \u015fahin duru\u015f ile enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f aras\u0131nda bir uyumsuzluk g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. WTI ham petrol son bir ayda %15\u2019ten fazla gerileyerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi ve IEA gelecek y\u0131la kadar s\u00fcrecek bir arz fazlas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak daha y\u00fcksek de\u011fil, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyona i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Bu dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun %3,2\u2019ye geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steren son ABD T\u00dcFE verisi, enflasyonun zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in fiilen faiz art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor. Piyasa, Fed y\u00f6nlendirmesine a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tepki veriyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; benzer bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc, \u015fahin Fed\u2019in h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde pivota gitti\u011fi 2018\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer taraftan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde seyreden daha yap\u0131\u015fkan hizmet enflasyonuyla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; bu da ECB\u2019den bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 1,0600 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda zorlanan EUR\/USD i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde bir toparlanma i\u00e7in EUR\/USD\u2019de uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 kademeli art\u0131rma f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 arar\u0131z.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

DXY, Fed\u2019in dot plotta tarihi \u015fahin kaymas\u0131yla 13 ay\u0131n zirvesinde: \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnde %1,5 ralli. Ancak petrol \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fcyor, enflasyon gev\u015fiyor; Fed freni \u00e7ekebilir, ECB alanl\u0131, 2026\u2019da EUR\/USD yukar\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49715","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49715"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49715\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49715"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49715"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49715"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}