ING, EUR\/USD y\u0131l sonu tahminini 1,18\u2019e y\u00fckseltti ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ile d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyreklerde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 beklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Banka bu revizyonu, piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fcvercin bir Fed duru\u015funa ve enerjiden d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fin (transmission) zay\u0131flamas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadeli de\u011ferleme \u00e7er\u00e7evesi adil de\u011feri 1,160 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6sterirken, ekip piyasan\u0131n 1,140 \u00fczerindeki seviyeleri savundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol, gaz, enflasyon ve ABD ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi faizlerini kapsayan daha geni\u015f senaryo setinde ING, \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131ya ka\u00e7m\u0131\u015f\u201d bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Brent\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte 90 $\/varil alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Avrupa\u2019da ba\u015fka bir ba\u015fl\u0131k olarak \u0130svi\u00e7re ve Norve\u00e7\u2019te iki faiz sabit b\u0131rakma karar\u0131na at\u0131f yapan banka, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) faizi en az iki y\u0131l daha %0,0\u2019da tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. ING ayr\u0131ca Norges Bank\u2019\u0131n A\u011fustos\u2019ta 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Euro\u2019nun Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi i\u00e7in bir patika g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar 1,18\u2019i hedefliyoruz. Mevcut EUR\/USD kuru 1,1450 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcze g\u00f6re bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Bu tahmin, Fed\u2019in faiz konusunda piyasan\u0131n \u015fu anda bekledi\u011finden daha az \u015fahin olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle destekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Son ABD T\u00dcFE verileri, enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6stererek Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncemizi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Ancak CME FedWatch Tool\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen t\u00fcrev piyasalar h\u00e2l\u00e2 bu y\u0131l bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %40 olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatl\u0131yor. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz ile piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu fark, f\u0131rsat\u0131n kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Il\u0131ml\u0131 ve kademeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Euro\u2019daki de\u011ferlenmeden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekiyor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ve d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekler i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike) 1,1600 civar\u0131nda olan EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Beklenen de\u011ferlenme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tarak, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019i (bull call spread) de kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te belirgin oynakl\u0131\u011fa neden olan enerji fiyatlar\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 riskin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Brent\u2019in varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 $ civar\u0131nda, 90 $ e\u015fi\u011finin belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 seyretmesiyle birlikte piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 net \u015fekilde faiz farklar\u0131na kay\u0131yor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k ortam\u0131, opsiyon bazl\u0131 stratejileri daha cazip h\u00e2le getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Euro lehine pozisyonlananlar\u0131n (Euro bulls) 1,1400 seviyesini savunaca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yoruz; bu da buray\u0131 kritik bir destek taban\u0131 h\u00e2line getiriyor. Bu nedenle, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,1400\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda olan \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 prim toplamak i\u00e7in uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 olsa da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn \u015fimdilik daha iyi korundu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fczle uyumlu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ING\u2019den euro i\u00e7in \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 revizyon: EUR\/USD y\u0131l sonu hedefi 1,18\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Daha g\u00fcvercin Fed ve zay\u0131flayan enerji ge\u00e7i\u015fiyle dolar \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 d\u00fc\u015febilir. Kritik destek: 1,14. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49712","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49712"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49712\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49712"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49712"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49712"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}