EUR\/USD, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,1420 ile son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini test ettikten sonra 1,1460\u2019a do\u011fru yeniden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc tepki verdi; ancak parite haftay\u0131 yine de yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,9 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD\u2019de Juneteenth bankac\u0131l\u0131k tatili nedeniyle i\u015flem hacminin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda son zirvelerinden bir miktar geri \u00e7ekildi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentileri dolar\u0131 desteklemeye devam etti. Fed faizleri sabit tutarken, projeksiyonlar komite \u00fcyelerinin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu da dolar taraf\u0131nda olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi.<\/p>\n
ABD makro verileri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini koruyor: May\u0131s\u2019ta Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar beklentilerin \u00fczerinde artarken, Philadelphia Fed \u0130malat Endeksi haziranda belirgin bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret etti. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ise Almanya \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) may\u0131sta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek \u00f6nceki %1,7\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ancak %2,5\u2019lik tahminin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Ayl\u0131k \u00dcFE enflasyonu nisan ay\u0131ndaki %1,2\u2019den %0,3\u2019e gerileyerek, \u00f6nceki enerji \u015fokunun etkilerinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme aciliyetinin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1460\u2019a toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 daha geni\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi i\u00e7inde ge\u00e7ici bir d\u00fczeltme olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; trendin y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fine i\u015faret etmiyor. Temel belirleyici, \u015fahin bir Fed ile daha temkinli bir ECB aras\u0131ndaki belirgin para politikas\u0131 fark\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki geri \u00e7ekilmelerin al\u0131mla kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 olas\u0131; bu durum, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda paritede anlaml\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 potansiyeli s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, son ABD enflasyon verileriyle de destekleniyor: \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,1 ile kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu ve Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP \u00f6nc\u00fc tahmini %2,4 seviyesinde gelerek so\u011fuma e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve ECB \u00fczerinde ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu ekonomik ayr\u0131\u015fma, dolar\u0131n euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki temel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fen veya yatay bantta hareket eden bir EUR\/USD\u2019den faydalanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. CME FedWatch Tool, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %75 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7iyor; bu da olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Bear call spread kurulmas\u0131 veya kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun \u00fczerinde\/alt\u0131nda olan (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131, risk-getiri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip profiller sunabilir.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcncel pozisyonlanma verileri de bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini destekliyor. Son CFTC raporu, b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin eurodaki net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc haftada art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Kurumsal tarafta g\u00fc\u00e7lenen bu konsens\u00fcs, paritede en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 yolunun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Takip edilmesi gereken kritik teknik seviye 1,1420\u2019deki son dip. Bu deste\u011fin belirleyici \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin devam\u0131na i\u015faret edebilir ve erken 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,1250 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru hareketin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. 1,1500 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeleri ise yeni k\u0131sa (bearish) pozisyonlar ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendiririz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD 1,1420 dibinden 1,1460\u2019a tepki verse de haftay\u0131 %0,9 ekside kapat\u0131yor. \u015eahin Fed, temkinli ECB ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc besliyor; 1,1420 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 1,1250 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49711","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49711"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49711\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49711"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49711"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49711"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}