USD\/JPY, 161,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde ve Temmuz 2024\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen 161,95 ile tan\u0131mlanan \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvenin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Yorumlarda, daha zay\u0131f ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yen \u00fczerindeki d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 hafifletebilecek bir unsur oldu\u011funa i\u015faret edildi. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede paritenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sarkma alan\u0131 oldu\u011fu, petrol kaynakl\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadleri (terms of trade) aleyhindeki r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131n etkisinin azalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi halinde 155,00 seviyesinin olas\u0131 bir hedef olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n may\u0131s enflasyonu, kontrol alt\u0131nda ve beklentilerle uyumlu olarak de\u011ferlendirildi; man\u015fet T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 0,1 puan art\u0131\u015fla %1,5\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, art\u0131\u015f\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmetin enerji s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan k\u0131smen s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. Politika arka plan\u0131, BOJ\u2019un sabr\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle uyumlu olarak nitelendirilirken, swap e\u011frisi \u00fczerinden piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n gelecek 12 ayda politika faizinin %1,50\u2019ye do\u011fru yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Metinde ayr\u0131ca i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 kullan\u0131larak \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irildi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin halihaz\u0131rda 160,00 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ortamda, enerji maliyetlerindeki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. WTI ham petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 90 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k 82 dolara gerilemesi, ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Japon ekonomisi \u00fczerindeki belirgin bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Bu temel de\u011fi\u015fim, yen i\u00e7in destekleyici bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BOJ) agresif bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne zorlanm\u0131yor olmas\u0131, daha \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir politika patikas\u0131na olan g\u00fcvenimizi art\u0131r\u0131yor. May\u0131s 2026 verileri, Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %2,5\u2019te sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu, y\u00f6netilebilir bir seviye ve merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n e\u011frinin gerisinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmiyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD ile keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor ve politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yen lehine daralmas\u0131 ihtimalini g\u00fcndeme getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu perspektifi dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY\u2019de 155,00-156,00 band\u0131na do\u011fru bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyonlanman\u0131n de\u011fer sundu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Paritede bir ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilite son d\u00f6nemde s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu da opsiyon stratejilerini daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli maruziyet sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 157,50 civar\u0131nda olan USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ederiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: USD\/JPY 161 \u00fczerinde, zirveye yak\u0131n! Petrol\u00fcn 90\u2019dan 82\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015fmesi yen bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Enflasyon kontroll\u00fc, BOJ sab\u0131rl\u0131; paritede 155 hedefi ve 157,50 put stratejisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47778,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49710","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49710"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49710\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47778"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49710"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49710"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49710"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}