Bat\u0131 Teksas t\u00fcr\u00fc ham petrol (WTI), cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 75,60 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,21 y\u00fckseldi; ancak bu haftaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti. Kontrat\u0131n, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda operasyonel ko\u015fullar\u0131n iyile\u015fmesinin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 arz riskini yeniden de\u011ferlendirmeye itmesi ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki jeopolitik primi azaltmas\u0131yla, haftay\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 kay\u0131pla kapatmas\u0131 bekleniyordu.<\/p>\n
Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131nda imzalanan 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck mutabakat zapt\u0131, su yolundan gemi trafi\u011finin kademeli olarak yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131yla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na ve k\u0131y\u0131 sular\u0131na giden\/gelen gemilere y\u00f6nelik deniz k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, daha \u00f6nce b\u00f6lgede mahsur kalan ham petrol y\u00fckleri de yola \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n m\u00fcdahalesi olmaks\u0131z\u0131n gece boyunca bo\u011fazdan 12,5 milyon varil petrol ge\u00e7ti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; Kuveyt ise kademeli \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Bununla birlikte Rabobank, 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck s\u00fcrenin ard\u0131ndan olas\u0131 deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccretlerine dikkat \u00e7ekerken, Deutsche Bank daha uzun vadeli m\u00fczakerelere ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik risk priminin h\u0131zla \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesiyle, k\u0131sa vadede WTI\u2019da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin devam\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Sevkiyatlar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve Kuveyt\u2019in planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, piyasan\u0131n daha iyi arz ko\u015fullar\u0131na do\u011fru gitti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) son raporunda ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 2,8 milyon varil artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi de bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor ve k\u0131sa vadede fiyatlar\u0131n gerilemesi i\u00e7in alan oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ima edilen volatilitenin gerilemesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131; ancak bunun bir f\u0131rsat sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX) 40\u2019a yak\u0131n zirvelerden 31\u2019e gerilemi\u015f olsa da, 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck anla\u015fmaya ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131tarak y\u00fcksek seviyelerde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. A\u011fustosta s\u00f6z konusu anla\u015fman\u0131n son tarihine yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131k\u00e7a volatilitedeki art\u0131\u015ftan fayda sa\u011flayacak stratejilerde de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan 12,5 milyon varilin ge\u00e7i\u015fi olumlu bir geli\u015fme olsa da, bu hacim kriz \u00f6ncesi yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varillik g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor. Bu durum, piyasan\u0131n hen\u00fcz tam kapasiteyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve lojistik veya politik aksakl\u0131klara kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Arz\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 normale d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in bu g\u00fcnl\u00fck ge\u00e7i\u015f verilerini temel bir g\u00f6sterge olarak izliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcy\u00fc daha \u00f6nceki jeopolitik gerilimlerde de g\u00f6rd\u00fck: arz rotalar\u0131 yeniden tesis edildi\u011finde ilk risk primleri h\u0131zla siliniyor. Bu nedenle, azalan primden ve yataydan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olmas\u0131 muhtemel fiyat e\u011filiminden yararlanmak \u00fczere, en yak\u0131n vadeli kontratlarda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Orta vadede ise, 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00f6nem sonras\u0131nda m\u00fczakerelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olma riskine kar\u015f\u0131 daha uzun vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, maliyet-etkin bir korunma (hedge) arac\u0131 olarak ele al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
WTI 75,60 dolarda haftay\u0131 %10 kay\u0131pla kapamaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de sevkiyat\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 jeopolitik primi sildi. Stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131 yaparken, 60 g\u00fcn sonuna yakla\u015f\u0131rken volatilite ve opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47757,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49707","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49707","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49707"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49707\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49707"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49707"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49707"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}