USD\/CHF, 0,7900\u2019dan ba\u015flayan \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek Avrupa seans\u0131nda 0,8100\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n genel \u00e7apta g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle Kas\u0131m 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Fed\u2019in \u015fahin e\u011filimi ve ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019la g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019ye planlanan ziyaretini iptal etmesinin ard\u0131ndan ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerinin bir sonraki turuna ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin desteklemesiyle May\u0131s 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca, \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 jeopolitik riski art\u0131rarak g\u00fcvenli liman USD\u2019ye talebi destekledi ve pariteyi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fiyat hareketi, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019dan (SMA) gelen tepkiyle ve 0,8000 psikolojik seviyesinin yeniden \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131yla desteklenmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, Ocak ay\u0131nda ilk kez g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u0131l i\u00e7i zirvenin yeniden test edilmesi de dikkat \u00e7ekti. Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama Iraksama (MACD) g\u00f6stergesi pozitif b\u00f6lgede ve sinyal \u00e7izgisinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (14) y\u00fcksek 60\u2019l\u0131 seviyelere t\u0131rmanarak a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ile ayn\u0131 hizadaki 0,7907 b\u00f6lgesi kritik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u015fik olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131; g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n yeniden bu b\u00f6lgeye do\u011fru d\u00f6nmesi, ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve konsolidasyona geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret edecektir.<\/p>\n
USD\/CHF\u2019de mevcut yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin, genel olarak daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD Dolar\u0131 ve jeopolitik gerilimler taraf\u0131ndan desteklenerek devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 0,8000 seviyesinin \u00fczerine ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen son k\u0131r\u0131lma, bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan \u00f6nemli bir y\u00fckseli\u015f sinyali. Parite bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn yukar\u0131 olmaya devam etti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik verilerle peki\u015fiyor; ge\u00e7en haftaki ABD enflasyon verisi %3,1 ile beklentilerin bir miktar \u00fczerinde geldi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, franktaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda g\u00fcvercin e\u011filimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn sinyalini veren \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) ile keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, USD\/CHF\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Belirgin y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, mevcut y\u0131l i\u00e7i zirve olan 0,8100\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almaya odaklan\u0131yoruz. Bu strateji, olas\u0131 bir ralli devam\u0131ndan faydalanmam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131rken potansiyel a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskimizi s\u0131n\u0131rlar. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7in 0,8250 seviyesini uygulanabilir bir hedef olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015fmas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli bir geri \u00e7ekilme ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bunu y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, prim toplamak ve 0,7907 ana destek seviyesi \u00fczerinde olas\u0131 bir yatay seyrin avantaj\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak amac\u0131yla, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) spread\u2019leri satmay\u0131 da de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, bir tampon olu\u015fturur ve bir sonraki y\u00fckseli\u015f baca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in beklerken gelir \u00fcretir.<\/p>\n
Bu piyasa hareketi, 2024 sonundaki trende benziyor; o d\u00f6nemde de Fed \u015fahinli\u011fi ile jeopolitik riskin benzer bir kombinasyonu, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f rallisini tetiklemi\u015fti. Bir ayl\u0131k USD\/CHF opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite %8,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu da piyasada daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir harekete y\u00f6nelik beklentiyi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu y\u00fcksek volatiliteyi, risk-getiri oran\u0131 elveri\u015fli i\u015flem kurgular\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: USD\/CHF r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor! Parite 0,7900\u2019den 0,8100\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131; DXY Fed \u015fahinli\u011fi ve jeopolitik risklerle zirvede. 0,8000 \u00fcst\u00fc pozitif; hedef 0,8250, kritik destek 0,7907.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49705","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49705","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49705"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49705\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49705"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49705"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49705"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}