GBP\/USD, Nisan 2025\u2019ten bu yana ge\u00e7erli olan y\u00fckselen trend \u00e7izgisinin alt\u0131na k\u0131rd\u0131 ve 1,3150 ile 1,3159 olarak i\u015faretlenen Mart diplerine do\u011fru zay\u0131flamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Diren\u00e7 1,3300 civar\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, destek 1,3065\/1,3000 band\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; parite bu direnci yeniden a\u015famazsa, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc projeksiyonlar 1,2940\u2019a i\u015faret ediyor. Gecelik bant 1,3163\u20131,3230 olurken, hareket pariteyi yeniden 1,32 seviyesinin alt\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sterlin bu hafta %1,6 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte; G10 i\u00e7inde NOK ve NZD\u2019nin ard\u0131ndan \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc en zay\u0131f performans\u0131 sergiliyor. \u0130ngiltere 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri yeniden %4,80\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken, Sonia e\u011frisi y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Teknik odak, Mart dibinin korunup korunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da bir sonraki referans seviye 1,3065, olas\u0131 bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015finde ilk tavan ise 1,3300.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2025\u2019ten gelen y\u00fckselen trend \u00e7izgisinin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, Sterlin a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k deste\u011fin korunamamas\u0131, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 yolunun art\u0131k a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu teknik k\u0131r\u0131lma, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon alma alan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n vadede oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, son savunma hatt\u0131 olan 1,3150 civar\u0131ndaki Mart dibi. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki dipleri hedefleyerek, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,3050 civar\u0131nda olan sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 planl\u0131yoruz. Temmuz sonu veya A\u011fustos 2026 vadeleri, paritenin bu daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeleri test etmesi i\u00e7in yeterli zaman\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc teknik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131 ile destekleniyor; son ABD \u00c7ekirdek PCE enflasyon verisi %2,9 ile gelerek, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumas\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlad\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin son T\u00dcFE verisi %2,4 ile, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 daha agresif ad\u0131mlar atmaya zorlayacak kadar y\u00fcksek de\u011fil. En son CFTC raporu da Sterlin\u2019de spek\u00fclatif net uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci haftada azalt\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131nda bir kaymay\u0131 teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
Risk y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 1,3300 seviyesi art\u0131k kritik diren\u00e7. Bu noktan\u0131n \u00fczerine kararl\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryomuzu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar ve \u201csahte k\u0131r\u0131lma\u201d sinyali \u00fcretir. Sterlin k\u0131sa vadeli bir tepki denemesi yaparsa, primi toplarken riski tan\u0131mlamak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa baca\u011f\u0131 1,3300 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda olan call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebiliriz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, yaz aylar\u0131nda benzer teknik kurulumlar\u0131n hareketi h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck; 2024 yaz\u0131nda kanal k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 takiben ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen sert %4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f buna \u00f6rnek. Bir ayl\u0131k GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite \u015fu anda g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir %6,8 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bize g\u00f6re bu, 1,3000\u2019e do\u011fru bir sarkma riskini tam olarak fiyatlam\u0131yor. Bu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon kurmak i\u00e7in g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin\u2019de alarm zilleri: GBP\/USD Nisan 2025 y\u00fckselen trendini k\u0131rd\u0131, 1,3150 Mart dibine sarkt\u0131. 1,3300 a\u015f\u0131lmazsa 1,3065\/1,3000 ve 1,2940 hedef. Put opsiyonu, call-spread riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47642,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49704","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49704","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49704"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49704\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49704"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49704"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49704"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}