Alt\u0131n, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc bir haftay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; ancak bu hareket, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansa ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131rken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) May\u0131s 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Fed, Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh y\u00f6netimindeki ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %3,5 – %3,75 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu; noktasal grafik (dot plot) ise enflasyonun yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131 halinde 19 \u00fcyenin dokuzunun bu y\u0131l h\u00e2l\u00e2 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koydu. CME Group\u2019un FedWatch Arac\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 g\u00f6sterirken, bu durum ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerini y\u00fcksek tuttu.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik risk alg\u0131s\u0131 da de\u011fi\u015fti; ABD-\u0130ran ge\u00e7ici bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin iyimserlik zay\u0131flarken, ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance hen\u00fcz nihai hale gelmemi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in planlanan \u0130svi\u00e7re seyahatini iptal etti. \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. Juneteenth nedeniyle ABD\u2019de bankalar\u0131n tatil olmas\u0131 sebebiyle likiditenin zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 beklenirken, alt\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftay\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatmaya haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Grafiklerde 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA yak\u0131n\u0131nda tekrarlanan ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z denemeler, 4.358,53 dolarda direnci korurken; RSI 36 civar\u0131nda ve MACD negatif b\u00f6lgede kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %3,8 seviyesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi; bu da merkez bankas\u0131na faiz indirimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ay\u0131 lehine kalmaya devam ederken, alt\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 108,50 civar\u0131nda, bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da alt\u0131n\u0131 di\u011fer para birimlerini kullanan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in daha pahal\u0131 hale getiriyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7, y\u00fcksek seyreden ABD Hazine getirileri taraf\u0131ndan destekleniyor; zira getiriler, faiz getirmeyen alt\u0131n\u0131n sunamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rekabet\u00e7i ve risksiz bir getiri imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu dinami\u011fin yat\u0131r\u0131m ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferli metalden uzakla\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, beklenen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten yararlanmak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n kritik 4.358 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmakta tekrar tekrar ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131, al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ay\u0131 teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, Temmuz ve A\u011fustos aylar\u0131nda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlara pozisyon alma stratejimizi destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn ciddi \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmay\u0131 da de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, alt\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede belirli seviyelerin alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle prim toplamam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r. Bu t\u00fcr bir pozisyon, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 yolunun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle uyumludur.<\/p>\n
Normalde Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki t\u0131rmanan gerilim alt\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir; ancak mevcut tabloda bu belirsizlik, tercih edilen g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. 2022\u2019de de benzer bir dinamik g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; agresif Fed politikas\u0131 di\u011fer fakt\u00f6rlerin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7erek dolar\u0131 alt\u0131n aleyhine y\u00fckseltmi\u015fti. ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerinin duraksamas\u0131, k\u00fcl\u00e7eden ziyade dolar\u0131n daha fazla fayda sa\u011flamaya devam etmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi zay\u0131f: Fed \u015fahin, DXY May\u0131s 2025\u2019ten beri zirvede. Y\u00fcksek tahvil getirileri ve teknik bask\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor; put\/call stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Jeopolitik risk dolar\u0131 besliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47774,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49702","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49702","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49702"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49702\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47774"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49702"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49702"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49702"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}