\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB), ikinci \u00e7eyrek toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan politika faizini %0 seviyesinde b\u0131rakt\u0131. SNB, a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda enflasyon tahminlerini 2027 i\u00e7in %0,6\u2019ya ve 2028 i\u00e7in %0,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti (\u00f6nceki tahminler s\u0131ras\u0131yla %0,5 ve %0,6 idi); 2026 i\u00e7in GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %1\u2019de de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. SNB, fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in gerekli olmas\u0131 halinde ko\u015fullar\u0131 izlemeyi ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131 ayarlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini belirtirken, baz senaryosunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyreklerde hammadde fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f nedeniyle k\u00fcresel enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131na, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ise yak\u0131n vadede \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyreklere k\u0131yasla daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve USD\/CHF paritesi yeniden 0,8000 psikolojik seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ancak ABD dolar\u0131ndaki genel zay\u0131fl\u0131k, paritenin \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan zirvenin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131na neden oldu. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan USD\/CHF, 200 periyotluk EMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini koruyor; RSI 62\u2019ye yak\u0131n ve MACD pozitif b\u00f6lgede. \u0130lk destek 0,7957\u2019deki 200 periyotluk EMA\u2019da; g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n bunun alt\u0131na inmesi y\u00fckseli\u015f yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 zedelerken, seviye \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nmas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m ilgisini canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %0\u2019da sabit tutma karar\u0131n\u0131 beklentilerle uyumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131nda anl\u0131k bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenme i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadeli bir kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc ortadan kald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n 2027 ve 2028 i\u00e7in biraz daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon tahminleri, ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde politikay\u0131 daha fazla gev\u015fetme konusunda isteksizli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da, daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131na sahip para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 frank i\u00e7in en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn yataydan zay\u0131fa do\u011fru oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Haziran 2026 itibar\u0131yla daha geni\u015f piyasa resminde stratejimiz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan faiz fark\u0131 belirleyici. Son May\u0131s verisinde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,1 gelen \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonu, ABD\u2019deki %2,8 ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ndeki %2,5 seviyelerinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131nda. Fed\u2019in politika faizinin %3,0 d\u00fczeyinde olmas\u0131yla, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 yerine ABD dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131maya y\u00f6nelik getiri avantaj\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor; bu da \u201ccarry trade\u201di te\u015fvik ederek USD\/CHF\u2019yi destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, USD\/CHF\u2019nin 0,7957\u2019deki kritik teknik destek seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131ndan faydalanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirece\u011fiz. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 0,7950 civar\u0131nda olan \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak, zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan ve piyasadaki y\u00fckseli\u015f yap\u0131s\u0131ndan yararlanarak prim toplamak i\u00e7in cazip bir y\u00f6ntem. Bu, paritenin mevcut seviyelerinden belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m yapmayaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir pozisyonlanmad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, son d\u00f6nemde zay\u0131f seyreden genel ABD dolar\u0131 e\u011filiminin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 riski de y\u00f6netmemiz gerekiyor. CHF opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k 2 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan %5,8\u2019e gerileyerek koruma ya da y\u00f6nsel pozisyon almay\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuz hale getiriyor. Bu nedenle USD\/CHF\u2019de \u201cbull call spread\u201d (bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir call satmak) kullanmak, dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 halinde riski tan\u0131mlarken s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle pozisyon almak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
SNB faizi %0\u2019da tuttu, 2027-2028 enflasyon tahminlerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti: Frank zay\u0131flad\u0131, USD\/CHF 0,8000\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131. 0,7957 kritik destek; carry trade ve opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49697","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49697","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49697"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49697\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49697"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49697"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49697"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}