ABD dolar\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD makro verileri ve Federal Rezerv\u2019e ili\u015fkin beklentilerin petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakmas\u0131yla yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine girdi. ABD\u2011\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ilk 36 saatlik i\u015flemlerde piyasalar, birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla yap\u0131sal olarak daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolara i\u015faret etti; odak enerji hareketlerinden uzakla\u015f\u0131p merkez bankas\u0131 mesajlar\u0131na ve petrol sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131, yeni Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh y\u00f6netimindeki yar\u0131nki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131na kilitlenmi\u015f durumda. Dolar\u0131n bir sonraki hamlesi, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir olas\u0131l\u0131k oldu\u011funa i\u015faret edip etmeyece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131. Fed\u2019den daha net bir sinyal gelene kadar, petroldeki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ne kadar kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funa dair belirsizli\u011fin FX genelinde fiyatlamay\u0131 temkinli tutmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc sadece petroldeki son gerileme de\u011fil, sa\u011flam ABD ekonomik verileri ve Fed\u2019e y\u00f6nelik beklentiler s\u00fcr\u00fckl\u00fcyor. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 net bi\u00e7imde enerji piyasalar\u0131ndan merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131na kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. Faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n seyrine dair herhangi bir sinyal i\u00e7in t\u00fcm g\u00f6zler yar\u0131nki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Ekonominin 250 bin istihdam ekledi\u011fini ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin %3,8\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren son istihdam raporu bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor. Son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisinin %3,5 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131, \u015fahin bir merkez bankas\u0131 ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasa, bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran iki hafta \u00f6nce yaln\u0131zca %40\u2019t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler \u00fczerinden dolarda ilave y\u00fckseli\u015fe pozisyon alman\u0131n rasyonel bir strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Dolar\/yen (USD\/JPY) paritesinde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) almak, yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin bir duru\u015f sergilemesi halinde olu\u015fabilecek olas\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 yakalamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, tan\u0131ml\u0131 risk profiliyle do\u011frudan bir i\u015flem imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2011\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 82 dolar civar\u0131na iterken, bu sert sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sorguluyoruz. Bu belirsizlik, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00f6nsel bahis almay\u0131 riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bunun yerine, b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerinde straddle stratejileri kullanarak volatiliteyi i\u015flemeye d\u00f6n\u00fck bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu yap\u0131, fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareket etmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ana olay riski FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131. Bu beklentiyle VIX endeksinin 14\u2019ten 16\u2019ya do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n artan piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. A\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131nda bir volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya bundan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla, k\u0131sa vadeli VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 ya da ba\u015fl\u0131ca endeksler \u00fczerine opsiyonlar de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri ve Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 \u015fahin mesajlar\u0131, petroldeki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakt\u0131. Piyasa yar\u0131nki FOMC\u2019ye kilitli; volatilite\/opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49696","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49696","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49696"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49696\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49696"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49696"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49696"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}