Alt\u0131n, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sona erdirmek \u00fczere anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %3\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckseldi; XAU\/USD, seans\u0131n erken saatlerinde 4.218 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan 4.351 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD hisseleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselirken risk i\u015ftah\u0131 iyile\u015fti; ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,23 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,57\u2019ye gerileyerek k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131na destek verdi. Anla\u015fman\u0131n, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck m\u00fczakerelerin ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc; bu kapsamda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler s\u0131ras\u0131nda belirlenecek bir mekanizma alt\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n y\u00fcksek derecede zenginle\u015ftirilmi\u015f uranyumu \u00fclke i\u00e7inde seyreltmesine y\u00f6nelik planlar\u0131n da masada oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Haber ajanslar\u0131, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc bir Mutabakat Muht\u0131ras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MOU) imzalanmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sert geriledi; WTI %4,46 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80,51 dolara indi. B\u00f6ylece ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketici ve \u00fcretici enflasyon verileri Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de enflasyon endi\u015feleri bir miktar hafifledi. Fed, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc para politikas\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak; bu toplant\u0131, Kevin Warsh d\u00f6neminin ilki olmas\u0131 nedeniyle ayr\u0131ca izleniyor. Piyasalar bilan\u00e7o mesajla\u015fmas\u0131 ve faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne odaklan\u0131yor. ABD Sanayi \u00dcretimi May\u0131s\u2019ta %0,9\u2019dan %0,1\u2019e yava\u015flarken, Nisan verisi %0,7\u2019den %0,9\u2019a revize edildi. Teknik seviyeler aras\u0131nda 4.400 dolar, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.454 dolar ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.580 dolar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; destekler 4.300, 4.250, 4.200 ve 4.023 dolar seviyelerinde. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131ndaki at\u0131l\u0131m dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca piyasada belirleyici g\u00fcc\u00fcn petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ham petrolde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar olu\u015fturmay\u0131 hedefliyoruz; bunu muhtemelen vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleriyle ya da sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak yapaca\u011f\u0131z. Tarih, bu t\u00fcr jeopolitik yumu\u015famalar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 etkiler yaratabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; \u00f6rne\u011fin 2015 \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131na giden s\u00fcre\u00e7, \u00e7evresindeki bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n %50\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015fmesine katk\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petroldeki \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan zay\u0131flat\u0131yor ve enflasyon korkular\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor; bu da alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u201cm\u00fckemmel f\u0131rt\u0131na\u201d yarat\u0131yor. Alt\u0131n rallisinin devam edecek alan\u0131 oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz ve 4.454 dolar seviyesini hedefleyen al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc temel talep taraf\u0131ndan da destekleniyor; D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin 2026 1\u00c7 verilerine g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 agresif al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek rezervlerine net 290 ton ekledi.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00c7ar\u015famba yap\u0131lacak Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131k kritik g\u00fcndem maddesi; \u00f6zellikle de yeni Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh y\u00f6netimindeki ilk toplant\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle. Piyasa \u015fu an g\u00fcvercin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f beklese de yeni liderli\u011fin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsizlik y\u00fcksek; bu da oynakl\u0131k (volatilite) stratejilerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. VIX \u015fu s\u0131ralar 13 civar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde; bu durum, SPY \u00fczerinde straddle gibi her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynayan opsiyonlar\u0131n, karar \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6rece ucuz fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetleri hisseleri destekleyebilse de, bu seviyelerden geni\u015f piyasada y\u00fckseli\u015fi kovalamaya temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz. S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck fiyat\/kazan\u00e7 oran\u0131 21\u2019in \u00fczerinde ve yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan son iyimserli\u011fin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 zaten yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Geni\u015f endeks al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 yerine, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji ve ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyetlerinden fayda sa\u011flayan belirli sekt\u00f6rlere t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle odaklanmay\u0131 tercih ederiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz jeopolitik yumu\u015fama: ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 alt\u0131n %3+ s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p 4.351$\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, DXY geriledi. Petrol %4,5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 hafifledi. G\u00f6zler Warsh\u2019l\u0131 Fed\u2019de, kritik seviyeler 4.400-4.454$.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47795,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49693","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49693","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49693"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49693\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49693"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49693"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49693"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}