AUD\/USD, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc daha zay\u0131f bir ABD Dolar\u0131 ve \u00f6nc\u00fc bir ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberlerin ard\u0131ndan iyile\u015fen risk i\u015ftah\u0131yla 0,7080 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru toparland\u0131. Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda Avustralya Dolar\u0131, ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,46 y\u00fckselerek 0,7078\u2019de i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve bir haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesinde bulunuyordu. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, anla\u015fman\u0131n imzaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; ayr\u0131ca d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen hisse senetlerine i\u015faret ederek, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fler, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; faizlerin %4,35\u2019te sabit tutulmas\u0131 bekleniyor. D\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte parite 0,7037\u2019deki 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, yak\u0131n destek seviyeleri 0,7072 ve 0,7065\u2019te yer ald\u0131. Diren\u00e7 0,7082\u20130,7089 band\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenirken, 0,7110\u2019daki 100 periyotluk SMA daha \u00fcst bir tavan olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 seviyesinde bulunarak, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeden pozitif momentuma i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik rahatlaman\u0131n Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 0,7100\u2019e do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 benzer d\u00f6nemleri hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Ancak mevcut ortam belirgin \u015fekilde farkl\u0131; AUD\/USD, 0,6650 \u00fczerindeki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 korumakta zorlan\u0131yor. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r, ABD ile Avustralya aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131; bu unsur ge\u00e7mi\u015fte bu kadar belirgin de\u011fildi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nceki d\u00f6nemlerde Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin d\u00fc\u015fmesi risk-i\u015ftah\u0131 y\u00fcksek para birimlerini desteklerken, bug\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki yava\u015flama. Son veriler, \u00c7in\u2019in sanayi \u00fcretiminin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yaln\u0131zca %4,9 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve beklentileri ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da Aussie\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiliyor. En b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131m\u0131zdan gelen bu kal\u0131c\u0131 bask\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
RBA da art\u0131k farkl\u0131 bir konumda; yava\u015flayan i\u00e7 ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik birka\u00e7 indirimin ard\u0131ndan politika faizi %3,85\u2019te. Avustralya\u2019da enflasyon %3,1\u2019e gerileyerek RBA\u2019ya ilave gev\u015feme alan\u0131 tan\u0131yor; bu da para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerde faizi sabit tuttu\u011fu ge\u00e7mi\u015f senaryolarla kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131k olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu arada ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimlerinde \u201csab\u0131rl\u0131\u201d duru\u015fa i\u015faret etmesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00c7ekirdek ABD enflasyonunun %3,4 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan seyretmesi, Fed\u2019i ad\u0131m atmakta isteksiz b\u0131rak\u0131yor ve ABD tahvil getirilerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Aussie kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda altta yatan g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesinin temel nedenlerinden biri.<\/p>\n
Bu zemin alt\u0131nda, yatay bantta fiyat hareketinden veya ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskinden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejilere bak\u0131yoruz. 0,6720 diren\u00e7 seviyesine yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, gelir yaratman\u0131n etkili bir yolu olabilir. Bu strateji, AUD\/USD paritesinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu tavan\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca ima edilen volatiliteyi izliyoruz; volatilite g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrediyor. Volatilitenin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 durumunda, uzun vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 maliyet-etkin bir korunma sa\u011flayabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, yakla\u015fan ABD istihdam raporu gibi \u00f6nemli veri g\u00fcndemleri \u00f6ncesinde pozisyonlar\u0131 korumaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve zay\u0131flayan dolar risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131, AUD\/USD 0,7080\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131. Ancak RBA karar\u0131, \u00c7in verileri ve Fed-RBA faiz ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ralliyi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; bant\/opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47660,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49692","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49692","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49692"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49692\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49692"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49692"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49692"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}