{"id":49688,"date":"2026-06-10T23:06:06","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T23:06:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/fedin-sahin-durusunu-korumasi-ve-rba-faiz-indirimi-beklentilerinin-avustralya-dolari-uzerinde-baski-yaratmasiyla-aud-usd-07020ye-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-06-10T23:06:06","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T23:06:06","slug":"fedin-sahin-durusunu-korumasi-ve-rba-faiz-indirimi-beklentilerinin-avustralya-dolari-uzerinde-baski-yaratmasiyla-aud-usd-07020ye-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fedin-sahin-durusunu-korumasi-ve-rba-faiz-indirimi-beklentilerinin-avustralya-dolari-uzerinde-baski-yaratmasiyla-aud-usd-07020ye-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019in \u015eahin Duru\u015funu Korumasi ve RBA Faiz \u0130ndirimi Beklentilerinin Avustralya Dolar\u0131 \u00dczerinde Bask\u0131 Yaratmas\u0131yla AUD\/USD 0,7020\u2019ye Geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

AUD\/USD \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,7020 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc seansa ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. ABD\u2019de beklentilerle genel olarak uyumlu gelen enflasyon verisi, oda\u011f\u0131 ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinde tuttu. May\u0131s T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,5 artarak %0,6\u2019dan gerilerken, man\u015fet enflasyon y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8\u2019den %4,2\u2019ye h\u0131zland\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,2 y\u00fckselerek %0,3\u2019l\u00fck beklentinin ve \u00f6nceki %0,4\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ise %2,8\u2019den %2,9\u2019a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Verinin ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131 belirgin bir ivme kazanmad\u0131. Ayr\u0131 bir geli\u015fme olarak National Australia Bank, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n muhtemelen faiz indirimi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineledi; ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklenmedi\u011fini ve politika faizinin zirvesinin g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olabilece\u011fini belirterek AUD \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n

D\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte parite 0,7019\u2019da bulunurken, 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (0,7045) ve 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (0,7127) alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti; RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 35 seviyesinde. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 20 periyotluk SMA \u00f6ncesinde 0,7027 ve 0,7038 olarak belirtilirken, destek 0,7018 ve ard\u0131ndan 0,6998\u2019de yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Politika Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h3>\n

RBA ile ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015fleyen politika fark\u0131, AUD\/USD i\u00e7in net bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc olu\u015fturuyor. Faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 elde tutmay\u0131 desteklemesi nedeniyle paritedeki geri \u00e7ekilmenin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda i\u015flem stratejimizin ana temas\u0131 bu ayr\u0131\u015fma olacak.<\/p>\n

Gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck RBA faiz indirimleri beklentisi Avustralya dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde belirgin bir bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek enflasyon verisinin %3,6\u2019ya gerilemesi, merkez bankas\u0131na y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde politika gev\u015fetmesini de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in alan sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Mevcut %3,85\u2019lik RBA politika faizinin bu d\u00f6ng\u00fcde zirveyi temsil etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, May\u0131s man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %4,2\u2019de kalmas\u0131 gibi kal\u0131c\u0131 ABD enflasyonu, Fed\u2019in faizi %5,25-%5,50 band\u0131nda daha uzun s\u00fcre tutaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d duru\u015f, Avustralya dolar\u0131na k\u0131yasla ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in herhangi bir politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini g\u00fcndeme almadan \u00f6nce birka\u00e7 ay daha so\u011fuyan veri g\u00f6rmesi gerekecek.<\/p>\n

Tarihsel Emsal, Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejisi<\/h3>\n

Bu senaryoyu daha \u00f6nce de g\u00f6rd\u00fck; \u00f6zellikle 2014-2015 d\u00f6neminde benzer politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, AUD\/USD\u2019de aylar s\u00fcren kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu tarihsel emsal, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin devam edece\u011fine dair g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu, net bir f\u0131rsat sunan tan\u0131d\u0131k bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor; parite, art\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan 0,7045 hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Daha fazla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket beklentisiyle 0,7000 seviyesinin alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. 0,7125\u2019in \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 da prim toplamak ad\u0131na uygulanabilir bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; zira y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n

K\u0131sa vadede oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, \u00f6nemli bir psikolojik e\u015fik olan 0,6998 destek seviyesinde. Bu b\u00f6lgenin kararl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rarak daha derin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. 0,7045 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerini, k\u0131sa pozisyonlara ekleme f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AUD\/USD 0,7020\u2019de d\u00f6rt seanst\u0131r geriliyor: Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d sinyali ve RBA\u2019da indirim beklentisi bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Teknikte 0,7045 alt\u0131nda; 0,6998 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131zlanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47793,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49688","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49688"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49688\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47793"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}