Alt\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %3,0\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde geriledi; ABD enflasyon verilerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 ve piyasalar\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 Fed politikas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde konumland\u0131rmas\u0131yla XAU\/USD, 11 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n 4.125 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE may\u0131sta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek Nisan 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %2,9 artt\u0131; ayn\u0131 zamanda ayl\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %0,4\u2019ten %0,2\u2019ye so\u011fudu. Enflasyondaki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket, ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi ve y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki faiz indirimi fiyatlamalar\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gidilebilece\u011fine giderek daha fazla haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131yla zay\u0131flad\u0131. CME FedWatch fiyatlamas\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir hamle olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %33, Ekim i\u00e7in %38 ve Aral\u0131k i\u00e7in %42 olarak ima ediyor.<\/p>\n
Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, dolar\u0131 son d\u00f6nemin zirvelerine yak\u0131n tutarak dolar bazl\u0131 k\u00fcl\u00e7eyi ilave bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda b\u0131rakt\u0131. Grafiklerde alt\u0131n 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.443 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkm\u0131\u015f durumda; RSI 27 civar\u0131nda ve ADX (14) 30\u2019un \u00fczerinde, daha belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine i\u015faret ediyor. Destek Mart dip seviyesi 4.098 dolarda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, diren\u00e7 4.443 dolarda; ard\u0131ndan 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.608 dolar ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.782 dolar seviyelerinde bulunuyor. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi.<\/p>\n
Son enflasyon rakamlar\u0131, Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki gerek\u00e7eyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdik\u00e7e alt\u0131n\u0131n belirgin bir darbe ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa art\u0131k en az bir art\u0131\u015fa bahis oynuyor; CME FedWatch Tool Aral\u0131k i\u00e7in %42 olas\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steriyor ki bu, getirisi olmayan bir varl\u0131k olan alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir olumsuzluk. Bu duyarl\u0131l\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin daha olas\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki son y\u00fckseli\u015f\u2014ge\u00e7en hafta varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 2023 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez bu seviyeyi a\u015fmas\u0131\u2014bu daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon verilerine do\u011frudan yans\u0131yor. S\u00fcregelen enerji \u015foku, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor; endeks h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 106,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ortam\u0131n\u0131n, alt\u0131nda olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in, bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmeden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131nda bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn h\u0131z\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Temmuz veya A\u011fustos vadeli ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 4.100 dolar civar\u0131nda ya da alt\u0131nda olan putlar\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 etkili bir strateji olabilir. Bu, riski y\u00f6netirken Mart dip seviyesi 4.098 dolar\u0131n yeniden test edilmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, para d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonu satmay\u0131 veya bear call spread stratejisi kurmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Eski 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 4.443 dolar \u00e7evresinde olu\u015fan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 4.450 dolar \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, yataydan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklenen fiyat hareketinden gelir yaratabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, hem fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinden hem de zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, bir sonraki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dalgas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015finin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu unutmamak gerekir. 4.250-4.300 dolar band\u0131na do\u011fru ya\u015fanabilecek olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri, trend de\u011fi\u015fiminden ziyade yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca belirsizlik unsuru ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor; zira ani bir gerilim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sert bir ters hareketi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015f: XAU\/USD %3+ d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 11 haftan\u0131n dibine yak\u0131n 4.125$\u2019ta. T\u00dcFE beklentiye paralel, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Teknikte 4.098$ destek, 4.443$ diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47867,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49687","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49687","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49687"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49687\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47867"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49687"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49687"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49687"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}