Japon yeni (JPY), May\u0131s \u00fcretici fiyat enflasyonunun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %6,3 ile beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda savunmada kald\u0131 ve G10 para birimlerinin \u00e7o\u011funun gerisinde performans g\u00f6sterdi. Piyasalar, Bank of Japan\u2019\u0131n (BoJ) gelecek Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tamamen fiyatlam\u0131\u015f durumda; Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar ilave 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir ad\u0131m daha da fiyatlara yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ba\u015fkan Kazuo Ueda\u2019n\u0131n hastaneye kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki haberler, karar s\u00fcrecindeki liderli\u011fe ili\u015fkin soru i\u015faretleri do\u011fursa da toplant\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 bozulmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de fiyatlaman\u0131n \u201cyap\u0131c\u0131\u201d oldu\u011fu belirtilirken, momentum g\u00f6stergeleri g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) y\u00fckseliyor ve teknik analizde yak\u0131ndan izlenen 70\u2019lik a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m e\u015fi\u011fine yakla\u015f\u0131yor. 162 seviyesi \u00f6ncesinde direncin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, trendin s\u00fcrmesi halinde paritenin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimini korudu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n May\u0131s \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) verisinin beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelmesine ra\u011fmen Japon yeninin ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131na girilirken para birimi, G10 muadillerinin \u00e7o\u011funa k\u0131yasla halen zay\u0131f performans sergiliyor. Bug\u00fcn, 10 Haziran 2026 itibar\u0131yla USD\/JPY yakla\u015f\u0131k 158,50 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, BoJ\u2019un gelecek hafta 17 Haziran\u2019daki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tamamen fiyatlam\u0131\u015f durumda. Hatta gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131 (OIS), bu art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %95 olarak g\u00f6sterirken, y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir tam art\u0131r\u0131m daha bekleniyor. Bu \u015fahin fiyatlama, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n son ulusal T\u00dcFE verisinin enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,9\u2019da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6stermesiyle de destekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu momentum \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, USD\/JPY i\u00e7in teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmaya devam etti\u011fini ve 162 seviyesi \u00f6ncesinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 diren\u00e7 bulundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Beklenen yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fi kanaatindeyiz. Y\u00fckselen RSI, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131m bask\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret etse de a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n olas\u0131 kamu m\u00fcdahalesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olmas\u0131 gerekiyor; Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2024 sonlar\u0131nda kur 160\u2019\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz m\u00fcdahale bunun bir \u00f6rne\u011fi. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, s\u00f6z konusu kritik psikolojik seviyeye yakla\u015f\u0131rken do\u011frudan uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha riskli hale getiriyor. BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 ve olas\u0131 d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi beklentisiyle 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite de %9,5\u2019e y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, do\u011frudan call almak yerine bir \u201cbull call spread\u201d kullanmay\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Temmuz vadede 159 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir call al\u0131rken e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak 161,50 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir call satmak etkili bir strateji olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, riski tan\u0131mlar ve i\u015flemin maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken, hedefimize (162\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131na) do\u011fru bir harekette getiriyi korur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015ea\u015f\u0131rtan \u00dcFE\u2019ye ra\u011fmen yen g\u00fc\u00e7 bulamad\u0131: USD\/JPY 158,50\u2019de \u201cyap\u0131c\u0131\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve y\u00fckselen RSI ile 162\u2019ye g\u00f6z k\u0131rp\u0131yor. BoJ\u2019da 25 bp art\u0131\u015f fiyatland\u0131; m\u00fcdahale riskiyle bull call spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47740,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49683","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49683","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49683"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49683\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47740"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49683"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49683"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49683"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}