TD Securities, ABD \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE verisindeki daha yumu\u015fak seyrin ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini bozmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. May\u0131s ay\u0131 t\u00fcketici fiyat enflasyonu piyasa beklentileriyle uyumlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; man\u015fet endeks ayl\u0131k %0,5 artt\u0131 (%0,473; yuvarlama \u00f6ncesi; TD: %0,48, konsens\u00fcs: %0,5). Notta, bunun y\u00fcksek ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 etkisiyle ili\u015fkilendirildi\u011fi ve benzinin ayl\u0131k %7 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi vurguland\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ise ayl\u0131k %0,2 artt\u0131 (%0,208; yuvarlama \u00f6ncesi; TD: %0,23, konsens\u00fcs: %0,3); yava\u015flaman\u0131n, Nisan ay\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan OER (sahip olunan konutun e\u015fde\u011fer kiras\u0131) ve kiralarda normalle\u015fmeye ba\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Kurum, ge\u00e7en haftaki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc istihdam s\u00fcrprizi ile t\u0131rmanan ABD\/\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n USD\u2019yi destekleyici oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Baz senaryoda ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) gelecek haftaki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar 99,86\u2013100,00 band\u0131 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrini korumas\u0131 beklenirken, bir sonraki y\u00f6nl\u00fc hamlede Ba\u015fkan Warsh\u2019\u0131n ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmesinin belirleyici olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu sabah beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelen \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6zlenen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici bir geri \u00e7ekilme olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Altta yatan g\u00fc\u00e7 net; \u00f6zellikle ge\u00e7en haftaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam raporu ekonominin 210 bin ki\u015filik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki s\u00fcregelen ticaret gerilimleriyle birlikte dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde desteklenmesini sa\u011flamal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta yap\u0131lacak Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrebilecek bir dolar rallisine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Mevcut 106,50 seviyesinin \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Trendin yeniden devreye girmesini beklerken prim geliri elde etmek amac\u0131yla vadesiz (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak da uygulanabilir bir strateji.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, enflasyon so\u011fusa bile diren\u00e7li i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 Fed\u2019in anlaml\u0131 faiz indirimlerine i\u015faret etmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131; 2024 ve 2025 boyunca bu kal\u0131b\u0131 defalarca g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Piyasa, Ba\u015fkan Powell\u2019\u0131n enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle, olas\u0131 bir \u201c\u015fahin\u201d s\u00fcrpriz dolar taraf\u0131nda belirgin bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz yok ama mesaj net: Yumu\u015fayan \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE dolar\u0131 sadece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gev\u015fetti. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam ve jeopolitik risk USD\u2019yi destekliyor; DXY FOMC\u2019ye kadar y\u00fcksek, \u015fahin s\u00fcrpriz yukar\u0131 k\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49682","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49682"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49682\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49682"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49682"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49682"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}