ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) 5 Haziran ile biten haftaya ili\u015fkin verileri, ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 7,228 milyon varil azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, 4 milyon varillik stok \u00e7ekili\u015fi beklentisiyle k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bildirilen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn tahminlerin \u00f6tesinde daha derin oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Son ham petrol stok raporu, 7,2 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde bir stok \u00e7ekili\u015fine i\u015faret etti; bu rakam, bizim bekledi\u011fimiz 4 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften belirgin \u015fekilde daha y\u00fcksek. Bu, talebin arz\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha fazla a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden net bir y\u00fckseli\u015f sinyali. Bu tablo, yaz\u0131n zirve talep sezonuna girilirken t\u00fcketimin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu veri noktas\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na de\u011ferlendirilmemeli. En g\u00fcncel haftal\u0131k verilere g\u00f6re ABD benzin talebinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u015fimdiden %2,5 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ayr\u0131ca AAA, yakla\u015fan 4 Temmuz tatil d\u00f6neminde rekor seviyede seyahat \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu talep g\u00fcc\u00fc, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek unsuru. Beklentiden b\u00fcy\u00fck stok \u00e7ekili\u015finin tek seferlik bir geli\u015fmeden ziyade, bir trendin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Arz taraf\u0131nda ise OPEC+ cephesinde disiplinin korundu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; grup, \u00fcretim kotalar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik yak\u0131n vadede bir plan olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 veriyor. \u00d6te yandan, Baker Hughes\u2019un son verileri ABD petrol sondaj kulesi say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yatay seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da kaya petrol\u00fc \u00fcreticilerinin \u00fcretimi agresif bi\u00e7imde art\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep ile k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 arz\u0131n birle\u015fimi, daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a yap\u0131c\u0131 bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareketi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almay\u0131 planl\u0131yoruz. \u00d6zellikle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 ve 95 dolar civar\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip A\u011fustos vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin, risk-getiri profili a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip oldu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz. Bu sayede yaz s\u00fcr\u00fc\u015f sezonunun ana b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde beklenen fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Pe\u015fin maliyetleri y\u00f6netmek isteyenler i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m spread\u2019lerini (bull call spread) de de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin A\u011fustos 90 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131m\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir call (A\u011fustos 100 dolar gibi) satarak \u00f6denecek primi azaltabiliriz. Bu strateji, 100 dolara kadar olas\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunarken riskimizi de tan\u0131mlar.<\/p>\n
Bu piyasa kurgusu, 2022 ortas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen fiyat t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 and\u0131r\u0131yor; ancak mevcut oynakl\u0131k seviyeleri hen\u00fcz o kadar a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fil. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) 34 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu seviye y\u00fcksek olsa da s\u00f6z konusu pozisyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturmak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan engelleyici de\u011fil. Olas\u0131 bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n opsiyon primlerini belirgin bi\u00e7imde art\u0131rmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce harekete ge\u00e7menin daha temkinli olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EIA verisi ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 7,228 milyon varillik sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etti. Beklentiyi a\u015fan \u00e7ekili\u015f, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc benzin talebi ve k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 arzla WTI\u2019da y\u00fckseli\u015f; 90-95$ call opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47644,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49681","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49681"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49681\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}