{"id":49680,"date":"2026-06-10T20:35:57","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T20:35:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/rabobank-carry-desteginin-zayiflamasi-ve-pesoda-uzun-pozisyonlarin-cozulmesiyle-usd-mxnnin-179a-dogru-yukselebilecegini-ongoruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-10T20:35:57","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T20:35:57","slug":"rabobank-carry-desteginin-zayiflamasi-ve-pesoda-uzun-pozisyonlarin-cozulmesiyle-usd-mxnnin-179a-dogru-yukselebilecegini-ongoruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rabobank-carry-desteginin-zayiflamasi-ve-pesoda-uzun-pozisyonlarin-cozulmesiyle-usd-mxnnin-179a-dogru-yukselebilecegini-ongoruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Rabobank, carry deste\u011finin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve pesoda uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesiyle USD\/MXN\u2019nin 17,9\u2019a do\u011fru y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rabobank, Meksika pesosunun y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %3,57 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini, ancak ayba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana geriledi\u011fini belirtti. Banka ayr\u0131ca, ticari olmayan spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin MXN\u2019de net uzun pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131n kademeli olarak azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve carry deste\u011finin cazibesini yitirmesiyle bu daralman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekledi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n

Stratejistler, Meksika pesosunda carry cazibesini a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131ran unsurlar olarak daralan faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015faret ederken, paran\u0131n g\u00f6reli bazda bir\u00e7ok emsaline k\u0131yasla yine de daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fini savundu. Banxico gecelik politika faizini %6,50\u2019ye indirdi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n piyasa y\u0131l sonuna kadar 34 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor, Rabobank ise merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faizi sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. USD\/MXN ima edilen volatilitesi son bir ayda vade e\u011frisi boyunca yataya yak\u0131n seyretti ve banka, paritenin \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k vadede 17,9\u2019a do\u011fru y\u00fckselmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Peso Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u0130\u015faretler ve De\u011fi\u015fen Momentum<\/h3>\n

Meksika pesosu bu y\u0131l g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir performans sergiledi, ancak dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flamaya ba\u015flamas\u0131yla bu e\u011filimin tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair i\u015faretler g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. USD\/MXN kurunun 17,20 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi, momentumdaki bu son de\u011fi\u015fimi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu zay\u0131flaman\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli bir sapma olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrekte daha yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareketin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn temel nedeni, peso carry i\u015flemlerinin cazibesinin azalmas\u0131. Meksika\u2019n\u0131n politika faizi %11,00 ile ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) %5,25\u2019lik faizinin \u00fczerinde h\u00e2l\u00e2 kayda de\u011fer bir prim sunsa da piyasa Banxico\u2019dan ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde indirimleri fiyatlarken Fed\u2019in beklemede kalmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n pesoda uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131maya y\u00f6nelik te\u015fvikini azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Spek\u00fclat\u00f6r Davran\u0131\u015f\u0131, Volatilite ve Pozisyonlanma Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin de bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme paralel hareket etti\u011fini; pesoya y\u00f6nelik y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisi i\u00e7eren pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Emtia Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Komisyonu\u2019nun (CFTC) son Commitment of Traders raporu, pesoda net uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftada geriledi\u011fini teyit ediyor. Kurumsal paran\u0131n bu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman daha kal\u0131c\u0131 bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 riskine i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n

Carry i\u015flemlerinin cazibesi azal\u0131rken, kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n son dip seviyelerinden y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz. USD\/MXN\u2019de \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte %11\u2019in alt\u0131ndan neredeyse %13\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131 risk y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha de\u011ferli bir ara\u00e7 haline getiriyor. Bu tablo, piyasan\u0131n peso i\u00e7in daha geni\u015f bir olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

USD\/MXN\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k tahminimiz do\u011frultusunda 17,90\u2019a do\u011fru y\u00fckselmesini bekledi\u011fimiz i\u00e7in, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n pesoda ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131k y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131n uygun olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Stratejilerden biri, 17,50 veya \u00fczeri kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 USD\/MXN al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak; bu, tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskle y\u00fckselen kurdan faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. B\u00f6ylece yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trende kat\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n

Buna kar\u015f\u0131n pesonun g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek getirisi, di\u011fer para birimlerine k\u0131yasla belirli bir destek sa\u011flamaya devam ederek sert bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Bu da USD\/MXN\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015fin, 2024 se\u00e7im d\u00f6nemi s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na benzer \u015fekilde, kademeli ve dalgal\u0131 olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu ortam, d\u00fcz bir \u00e7izgide hareket beklentisinden ziyade dalgalanmalar\u0131 y\u00f6netebilen stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rabobank uyar\u0131yor: MXN\u2019de ralli soluyor. Carry cazibesi faiz fark\u0131 daralmas\u0131 ve artan volatiliteyle zay\u0131flarken, spek\u00fclat\u00f6r net uzunlar\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Banka USD\/MXN\u2019nin 3 ayda 17,9\u2019a y\u00fckselmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49680","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49680","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49680"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49680\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49680"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49680"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49680"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}