\nNZD\/USD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,5815 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve piyasalar \u00c7in ve ABD\u2019den gelen yeni verileri sindirirken b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmedi. \u00c7in\u2019de Ulusal \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (CPI) May\u0131s ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 geriledi\u011fini (\u00f6nceki %0,3 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan) bildirirken, \u00dcFE\u2019nin (PPI) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,9 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve %3,8\u2019lik beklentinin hafif \u00fczerinde geldi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Enflasyondaki bu karma sinyaller, \u00c7in\u2019in makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki de\u011fi\u015fimlere duyarl\u0131 olma e\u011filimindeki NZD i\u00e7in belirgin bir destek yaratmad\u0131.\n<\/p>\n
\nArd\u0131ndan dikkatler ABD enflasyon verisine \u00e7evrildi. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi (Nisan: %3,8) ve beklentilerle uyumlu geldi; ayl\u0131k bazda fiyatlar %0,5 artt\u0131, bu da konsens\u00fcsle paraleldi. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,2 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,9 y\u00fckseldi. Y\u0131ll\u0131k orandaki art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen, USD taraf\u0131ndaki fiyat hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar verinin Fed ve ABD faiz patikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ne anlama gelebilece\u011fini tartarken parite bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131.\n<\/p>\n
\nABD enflasyonunun %4,2\u2019ye h\u0131zlanmas\u0131yla, Federal Rezerv\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yoruz. Bu durum, \u00c7in\u2019den gelen karma ekonomik sinyallerle keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor ve Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131na ger\u00e7ek bir destek sunmuyor. Bu nedenle, NZD\/USD i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadede en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.\n<\/p>\n
\nPiyasa, 29 Haziran\u2019daki bir sonraki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran ge\u00e7en hafta yaln\u0131zca %50 seviyesindeydi. Artan bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 kritik \u00f6nemde; \u00f6zellikle de Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n 1\u00c7 GSYH verisinin beklentilerin alt\u0131nda %0,1 gelmesi, RBNZ\u2019ye s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma i\u00e7in fazla neden b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. ABD ile Yeni Zelanda ekonomileri aras\u0131ndaki bu temel fark\u0131n parite \u00fczerinde belirgin bir bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.\n<\/p>\n
\n0,5815 etraf\u0131ndaki mevcut yatay seyir, bir sonraki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bacak \u00f6ncesi ge\u00e7ici bir duraklamaya i\u015faret ediyor olabilir. Bunu, kurda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacak NZD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131\/\u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir riskle pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flarken, Fed\u2019in bir sonraki a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 potansiyel sert bir harekete de haz\u0131rl\u0131k sunuyor.\n<\/p>\n
\nTarihsel olarak, Fed\u2019in agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemler NZD\/USD\u2019yi \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 diplerine do\u011fru itmi\u015ftir. Parite, 2025 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 0,5750 destek seviyesini test etmeye uzak de\u011fil; bu seviyenin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m 0,5600 b\u00f6lgesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite \u015fimdiden %11,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu da opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n bu dar banttan bir k\u0131r\u0131lma bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
NZD\/USD 0,5815\u2019te yatay: \u00c7in T\u00dcFE d\u00fc\u015ferken \u00dcFE s\u00fcrprizi destek vermedi. ABD T\u00dcFE %4,2 ile Fed\u2019i \u015fahin tutuyor; Haziran\u2019da 25 bp olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %85. Sat\u0131m opsiyonu, 0,5750 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 0,5600.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49800,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49679","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49679","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49679"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49679\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49800"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49679"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49679"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49679"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}