Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC), beklentilere paralel olarak politika faizini %2,25 seviyesinde sabit tuttu. Karar, g\u00f6sterge faizin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flarken para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funun da mevcut seviyede korundu\u011funa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Faizdeki bu \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d ad\u0131m\u0131, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini %2,25\u2019te sabit b\u0131rak\u0131rken politika ayar\u0131nda yak\u0131n vadede bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik sinyali vermedi. Piyasalar de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklemiyordu ve sonu\u00e7 bu temel senaryoyla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
BoC\u2019un %2,25 hamlesi tamamen fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan faiz oran\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni volatilitenin sert geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. \u015eimdi y\u00f6nlendirmeyi (forward guidance) yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; zira may\u0131s ay\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon verisinin %2,1 gelmesi, Banka\u2019n\u0131n faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ara verebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da, prim erimesi (theta) daha da h\u0131zlanmadan \u00f6nce primi toplamak ad\u0131na k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine opsiyon satmay\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerinde oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z Kanada ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 oluyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed kendi faizini daha y\u00fcksek olan %3,50\u2019de tutuyor. Bu fark, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 1,3900 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren Kanada dolar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye devam ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,4000\u2019e do\u011fru bir hareket beklentisiyle USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 elde tutarak pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oran\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralliyi tetiklemiyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu durum daha yava\u015f bir ekonomiyi yans\u0131t\u0131yor ve 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi zay\u0131f bir %0,9 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f durumda. S&P\/TSX 60 Endeksi\u2019nin y\u00f6n bulmakta zorlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu da yatay bantta seyreden piyasadan gelir elde eden stratejiler i\u00e7in uygun bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. Bu nedenle, ek gelir yaratmak amac\u0131yla \u00e7ekirdek Kanada hisse pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z \u00fczerine kapal\u0131 al\u0131m (covered call) sat\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Banka\u2019n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmesi, gelecekteki ad\u0131mlar\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle \u201cveriye ba\u011fl\u0131\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Bu nedenle bir sonraki istihdam raporu ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 verilerine odaklan\u0131yoruz. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,8 seviyesinde yap\u0131\u015fkan seyrini koruyor; bu d\u00fczey, Banka\u2019n\u0131n bir sonraki indirimi hemen ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesini gerek\u00e7elendirmek i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek bulunabilir. Bu nedenle eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc netle\u015fene kadar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutulmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz yok ama f\u0131rsat var: BoC faizi %2,25\u2019te sabit tuttu, volatilite d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Fed fark\u0131 CAD\u2019\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor; USD\/CAD 1,40 hedefli. Tahvil opsiyonu, covered call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Veriye ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131k s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49677","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49677","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49677"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49677\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49677"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49677"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49677"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}