ABD \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019si (mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f) May\u0131s ay\u0131nda artt\u0131; endeks bir \u00f6nceki ayki 335,423 seviyesinden 336,1213\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu hareket, g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 tutuldu\u011funda temel t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda s\u00fcregelen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filime i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin 336,121\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n tamamen kaybolmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak h\u0131z kesti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yaln\u0131zca %0,21 ile y\u0131l\u0131n \u015fu ana kadarki en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, Fed\u2019in gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bununla birlikte, piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde olas\u0131 bir faiz indirimine daha fazla \u00e7evirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadeli patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fi azalt\u0131rken S&P 500 opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa korkusunun \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergelerinden VIX endeksi bu sabah %7 d\u00fc\u015ferek 17\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi. Bu tablo, piyasan\u0131n daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir ve bant i\u00e7inde seyreden bir d\u00f6neme girebilece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla iron condor gibi stratejiler \u00fczerinden prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 f\u0131rsatlar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri piyasas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 reaksiyon verdi; vadeli kontratlar art\u0131k Eyl\u00fcl 2026 toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 seviyesinde fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran daha d\u00fcn %50 idi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz beklentisiyle Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131ma y\u00f6nelerek pozisyon ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durum, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda faiz swaplar\u0131nda sabit faiz alma (receive fixed) pozisyonunu daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, teknoloji ve gayrimenkul gibi faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6zellikle destekleyici. Olas\u0131 bir ralliye yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endekslerde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeye bak\u0131yoruz. Tarihsel olarak, Fed\u2019den g\u00fcvercin bir pivot ihtimalinin dahi piyasan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 alanlar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kataliz\u00f6r i\u015flevi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc biliniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz May\u0131s \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla enflasyon nefes ald\u0131, Fed\u2019in faizi sabit b\u0131rakma ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. VIX %7 geriledi; opsiyonda prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. SOFR al\u0131mlar\u0131, 2026\u2019ya kadar indirim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Teknoloji, gayrimenkul destekli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47676,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t