Avustralya dolar\u0131, G10 i\u00e7inde en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans g\u00f6steren para birimlerinden biri olmaktan \u00e7\u0131karak son d\u00f6nemde s\u0131ralamalar\u0131n alt taraf\u0131na geriledi. \u0130\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesindeki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme de AUD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. USD\u2019nin de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131yla AUD\/USD yeniden 0,70\u2019e do\u011fru \u00e7ekilirken, Avustralya\u2019dan gelen daha yumu\u015fak veriler piyasan\u0131n Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gidece\u011fine dair inanc\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar bu y\u0131l RBA\u2019dan bir kez daha faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, Rabobank a\u011fustosta ilave bir art\u0131\u015f bekliyor. Banka, i\u00e7 faaliyet g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zay\u0131flarken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 kapanmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon riskleri nedeniyle faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131n hassas oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. \u00dc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ufukta ise AUD\/USD\u2019nin 0,70\u20130,71 band\u0131nda dalgalanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesi duraksad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k en iyi performans g\u00f6sterenler aras\u0131nda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n 2026 1\u00c7 T\u00dcFE verisi %3,4 ile beklentilerin hafif alt\u0131nda geldi; bu da RBA\u2019n\u0131n haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda daha n\u00f6tr bir duru\u015f benimsemesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu durum, daha agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fine dair kanaati sarst\u0131.<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD\u2019nin yatay seyredece\u011fi beklentimiz do\u011frultusunda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in uygun stratejinin volatilite satmak oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Spot kurun \u015fu anda 0,7050 civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131yla, 0,7000\u20130,7100 band\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na yerle\u015ftirilecek kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla k\u0131sa strangle veya iron condor kurmak cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u0130ma edilen volatilite de bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme paralel olarak geriliyor.<\/p>\n
A\u011fustosta RBA\u2019dan son bir 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 fiyatl\u0131yoruz; bunun seyri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bir sonraki \u00e7eyreklik enflasyon verisine ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. Bu olas\u0131 art\u0131\u015f ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki s\u00fcregelen gerilim, volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcze y\u00f6nelik ba\u015fl\u0131ca yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri olu\u015fturuyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ani enflasyon \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 stop-loss kullanmalar\u0131nda fayda var.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenme Avustralya dolar\u0131ndaki belirgin y\u00fckseli\u015fleri muhtemelen s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak. ABD\u2019de May\u0131s 2026 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporu 210 bin ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederek, Fed\u2019in faizlerde \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirdi. Bu dinamik AUD\/USD\u2019yi \u00e7\u0131pal\u0131yor ve bant hareketi tezimize destek veriyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Demir cevheri, \u00c7in\u2019den gelen talebin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretlerle ton ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi. Bu tablo, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc USD ve zay\u0131f \u00c7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 aylarca bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2018-2019 d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131n 0,71 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 engellemesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f: Avustralya dolar\u0131 G10\u2019da gerilerken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc USD ve yumu\u015fak veriler AUD\/USD\u2019yi 0,70\u2019e \u00e7ekiyor. RBA\u2019da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f beklentisi s\u00fcrse de baz senaryo 0,70-0,71 band\u0131, volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47791,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49671","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49671","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49671"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49671\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47791"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49671"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49671"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49671"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}