ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) May\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,2 artt\u0131 ve piyasa beklentileriyle uyumlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Veri, t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n ay genelinde beklentilere paralel \u015fekilde sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
S\u00f6z konusu veri noktas\u0131, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131 piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fc olan %4,2 seviyesinde de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Man\u015fet rakam\u0131n yan\u0131nda ek bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s T\u00dcFE\u2019nin beklendi\u011fi gibi tam %4,2 gelmesiyle, k\u0131sa vadede piyasa belirsizli\u011finin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. S\u00fcrpriz olmamas\u0131, ba\u015fl\u0131ca hisse endekslerinde k\u0131sa vadeli z\u0131mni volatiliteyi bask\u0131layabilir. Bu ortam\u0131n, istikrardan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejiler (\u00f6rne\u011fin, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olan opsiyonlar\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan elveri\u015fli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Beklenen %4,2\u2019lik enflasyon, hedefin h\u00e2l\u00e2 iki kat\u0131ndan fazla olmas\u0131 nedeniyle Fed\u2019in temkinli duru\u015funu peki\u015ftiriyor. CME FedWatch Tool, Fed\u2019in gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %94 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da yaz aylar\u0131 i\u00e7in bekledi\u011fimiz \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Dikkatimiz, \u00f6zellikle istihdam verileri olmak \u00fczere, gelecekteki politika patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin ipucu verebilecek di\u011fer ekonomik g\u00f6stergelere kay\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki istihdam raporunda 272 bin ki\u015filik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, ekonominin Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesi i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 fazla s\u0131cak oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirebilecek olas\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sinyallerini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
VIX\u2019in 13 civar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde seyretmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, portf\u00f6y korumas\u0131n\u0131n maliyeti g\u00f6rece ucuz. Bu f\u0131rsat\u0131, \u00f6rne\u011fin SPX veya QQQ \u00fczerinde vadesi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin sonlar\u0131na uzanan put al\u0131mlar\u0131 gibi hedge yap\u0131lar\u0131 kurmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131yoruz. Bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda Fed\u2019den gelebilecek daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 maliyet etkin bir koruma sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, enflasyonun %3,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde inat\u00e7\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ekonominin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemler, dalgal\u0131 ve yatay bantta hareket eden piyasalara zemin haz\u0131rlad\u0131. Bu beklentiye paralel enflasyon verisine dayanarak, yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m i\u00e7in kataliz\u00f6r g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle, belirgin bir trend eksikli\u011finden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla iron condor ve kalender spread stratejileri kurguluyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz yok: ABD May\u0131s T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2 ile beklentiye paralel. Volatilite bask\u0131lanabilir, \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck VIX\u2019te ucuz hedge, yatay bantta opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49669","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49669","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49669"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49669\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49669"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49669"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49669"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}