\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde NYMEX\u2019te WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i yakla\u015f\u0131k 86,14 dolardaki dip seviyeden toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 88,00 dolar\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde yatay seyretti. Toparlanma, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Truth Social\u2019da \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 askeri operasyonlar\u0131n t\u0131rmanabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu\u011fu payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi; Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Donanmas\u0131 ve Hava Kuvvetleri\u2019nin \u201cyerle bir edildi\u011fini\u201d belirterek Tahran\u2019a Washington ile m\u00fczakereye oturma \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131. Piyasa, yenilenen gerilimin k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik g\u00fczerg\u00e2h olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 uzatabilece\u011fi riskini de fiyatlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc \u0130smail Bekayi\u2019nin gece ya\u015fanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Tahran\u2019\u0131n Washington ile m\u00fczakere \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. \u00d6te yandan ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7 saatlerde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hava savunma unsurlar\u0131na, kara kontrol istasyonlar\u0131na ve g\u00f6zetleme radar noktalar\u0131na sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu ad\u0131mlar, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgede bir Apache helikopterini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesinin ard\u0131ndan Trump\u2019\u0131n Truth Social\u2019da misilleme s\u00f6z\u00fc vermesini takip etti.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda gerilimin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan West Texas Intermediate vadeli i\u015flemlerinin varil ba\u015f\u0131na 81 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu\u011funu izliyoruz. Piyasa belirgin \u015fekilde tedirgin; Washington ya da Tahran\u2019dan gelen her sert s\u00f6ylem an\u0131nda fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bunun nedeni, bo\u011faz\u0131n k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir dar bo\u011faz (chokepoint) olmas\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil petrol ge\u00e7iyor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla olas\u0131 bir kesinti, arz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tehdit anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu endi\u015fe, son EIA raporunun ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 2,1 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermesiyle daha da artarak piyasay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. OPEC+ da \u00fcretim kesintilerinde kararl\u0131 duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek fiyatlara g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan bu ortam, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda i\u015flem yap\u0131lacak ana unsurun volatilite oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX) ge\u00e7en hafta %8 y\u00fckseldi; bu da opsiyon primlerinin pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. S\u00fcrecek fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na ve olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlere pozisyon almak, bize g\u00f6re en mant\u0131kl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, bu jeopolitik endi\u015felerin tetikleyebilece\u011fi olas\u0131 bir fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131 veya bull call spread gibi stratejilere bak\u0131yoruz. Tarihsel olarak 2019\u2019daki Suudi petrol tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar, fiyatlarda bir gecede yakla\u015f\u0131k %15\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7ramaya neden olmu\u015ftu. Mevcut durum farkl\u0131 olsa da, arz tehditleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda piyasan\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde kritik alarm: Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran mesajlar\u0131 ve CENTCOM sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski yeniden fiyatland\u0131. WTI 88 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnde yatay; stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve OPEC+ kesintileri taban sa\u011fl\u0131yor, volatilite y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47763,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49667","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49667"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49667\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49667"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49667"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49667"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}