Yen, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek ABD dolar\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na 160,00 seviyesinin daha da \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye Tokyo\u2019nun olas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131yla s\u0131k\u00e7a ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuho Ueda\u2019n\u0131n hastaneye kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinin ard\u0131ndan USD\/JPY kuru 160,50\u2019nin \u00fczerine y\u00fckseldi. BoJ a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 Ueda\u2019n\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131k durumuna ili\u015fkin ayr\u0131nt\u0131 vermedi ancak 15-16 Haziran\u2019daki para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131na kat\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti; Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Ryozo Himino vek\u00e2let edecek, karar sonras\u0131 bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ise di\u011fer Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Shinichi Uchida ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar genel olarak BoJ\u2019un gelecek hafta 25 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya giderek politika faizini %1\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; bu, 30 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesi olacak. Yen zay\u0131f kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya ili\u015fkin y\u00f6nlendirme de yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. Haberlere g\u00f6re Japon yetkililer 30 Nisan\u2019da para birimini desteklemek i\u00e7in 11,7 trilyon yen (yakla\u015f\u0131k 73,14 milyar dolar) harcad\u0131; ancak etkinin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bask\u0131n\u0131n, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Japon devlet tahvili getirileriyle de ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor; Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentiler g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, daha sonra a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s ABD T\u00dcFE verisinin enflasyonu \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinde g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. Bu arka plan ABD tahvil getirilerini ve dolar\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160,50 seviyesini a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 izliyoruz; bu, Japon yetkililer a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirgin bir endi\u015fe e\u015fi\u011fi. Ba\u015fkan Ueda\u2019n\u0131n ani \u015fekilde hastaneye kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, gelecek haftaki kritik politika toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde belirsizli\u011fi \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu durum, USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda bir haftal\u0131k ima edilen volatilitenin %15\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131; bu seviye en son nisan ay\u0131 sonundaki m\u00fcdahale endi\u015fesi s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE verileri, ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in temel belirleyici olacak. Son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporunda 295 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesinin ard\u0131ndan, ekonomistler May\u0131s \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 gelmesini bekliyor. Bu tahmine e\u015fit veya daha y\u00fcksek bir veri, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki arg\u00fcman\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019un faizi %1\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde girmi\u015f olsa da, biz daha \u00e7ok bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131ndaki ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeye odaklan\u0131yoruz. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, 30 Nisan\u2019da para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in tek bir g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 12 trilyon yen harcayarak m\u00fcdahaleye istekli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, olas\u0131 yeni s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin 161,00\u2019e do\u011fru\u2014ani ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir m\u00fcdahaleyle kar\u015f\u0131lanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, basit bir uzun call stratejisinin m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 fazla a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bunun yerine, 161,00 seviyesinden call al\u0131p 162,50 seviyesinden call satarak hem riski hem getiriyi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan \u201cbull call spread\u201d yap\u0131s\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Bu yap\u0131, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyrin devam\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken, yetkililerin yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lenme hamlesiyle yende ya\u015fanabilecek ani bir s\u0131\u00e7ramada kay\u0131plar\u0131 azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6n konusunda emin olmasa da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketin yak\u0131n oldu\u011funa inananlar i\u00e7in, bir haftal\u0131k \u201cstrangle\u201d al\u0131m\u0131 uygulanabilir bir stratejidir. Bu, hem kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) bir call hem de paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir put sat\u0131n almay\u0131 i\u00e7erir; BoJ karar\u0131 ve ABD veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda beklenen volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedeflenir. Y\u00fckselmi\u015f ima edilen volatilite bu i\u015flemi pahal\u0131 hale getirse de, her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir s\u00fcrpriz riskine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yen\u2019de kritik e\u015fik a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131: USD\/JPY 160,50\u2019yi g\u00f6rd\u00fc, Ueda\u2019n\u0131n hastaneye kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 volatiliteyi %15\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Piyasalar BoJ\u2019dan %1 faiz bekliyor; g\u00f6zler ABD T\u00dcFE ve olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalede.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47727,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49665","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49665","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49665"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49665\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47727"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49665"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49665"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49665"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}