Hindistan\u2019\u0131n M3 para arz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi May\u0131s 2025\u2019te y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %12\u2019de sabit kald\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Bu veri, geni\u015f likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6nem boyunca istikrarl\u0131 seyretti\u011fine; parasal geni\u015fleme h\u0131z\u0131nda ne bir ivmelenme ne de bir yava\u015flama ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131ll\u0131k %12\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fmeyen oran, M3\u2019\u00fcn temel belirleyicilerinin\u2014dola\u015f\u0131mdaki nakit, vadesiz mevduatlar, vadeli mevduatlar ve di\u011fer bile\u015fenler\u2014Nisan ay\u0131na benzer bir toplam sonuca birlikte ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Veriler, ekonomi May\u0131s ay\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rak\u0131rken sistem genelinde likidite e\u011filimlerinde s\u00fcreklili\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s 2025\u2019e ait %12\u2019lik istikrarl\u0131 M3 para arz\u0131, bug\u00fcn sistemde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz fazla likiditenin erken bir g\u00f6stergesiydi. Bu durum, mevcut enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131na do\u011frudan katk\u0131 yapt\u0131; May\u0131s 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin en son T\u00dcFE verisi enflasyonu %5,9 seviyesinde g\u00f6steriyor ve bu oran Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) %6\u2019l\u0131k \u00fcst band\u0131na rahats\u0131z edici derecede yak\u0131n. Y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda RBI\u2019nin oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n net bi\u00e7imde enflasyon kontrol\u00fcnde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu arka planla birlikte, RBI\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumas\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 belirtelim. Gecelik endeksli swap (OIS) piyasas\u0131 bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hen\u00fcz tam olarak yans\u0131tm\u0131yor; bu da i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat alan\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. M\u00fc\u015fterilerimize, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin mevcut beklentilerin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k OIS\u2019te \u201cpay\u201d (fixed pay) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda bu parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma, \u00f6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisseleri ve faiz hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek sekt\u00f6rler i\u00e7in bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7eviren unsur. Nifty 50 endeksi 24.000\u2019e uzanan son rallinin ard\u0131ndan ivme kayb\u0131 sinyali verirken, bu g\u00fcc\u00fc defansif pozisyonlar olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131yoruz. Olas\u0131 %5-7\u2019lik bir piyasa d\u00fczeltmesine kar\u015f\u0131 maliyet-etkin bir korunma olarak \u00fc\u00e7 ay vadeli Nifty sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Kur piyasas\u0131nda ise RBI\u2019nin muhtemel ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n Hindistan Rupisi\u2019ne destek vermesi beklenir. ABD\u2019de Fed\u2019in art\u0131k faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi bir ortamda, Hindistan ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 Rupiyi cazip bir carry trade arac\u0131 haline getiriyor. Beklenen yatay bant hareketi ve volatilite erimesinden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131nda f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Likidite alarm\u0131: Hindistan\u2019da M3 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi May\u0131s 2025\u2019te %12\u2019de sabit kald\u0131. Enflasyon %5,9 ile banda dayand\u0131; RBI\u2019den \u015fahin duru\u015f ve 25 bp art\u0131\u015f beklentisi. OIS\u2019te pay, Nifty put, USD\/INR call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47698,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49664","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49664","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49664"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49664\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47698"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49664"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49664"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49664"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}