Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), Ba\u015fkan Kazuo Ueda\u2019n\u0131n hastaneye kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 15\u201316 Haziran\u2019daki iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck para politikas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131na kat\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Toplant\u0131ya Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Ryozo Himino ba\u015fkanl\u0131k edecek; karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00f6\u011fleden sonra yap\u0131lacak bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ise Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Shinichi Uchida ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek.<\/p>\n
BoJ, ba\u015fkan\u0131n durumuna ili\u015fkin ba\u015fka ayr\u0131nt\u0131 vermezken, Ueda\u2019n\u0131n muhtemelen iki hafta hastanede kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak politika faizini %1\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi bekleniyor. Bu seviye, 30 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fckse\u011fi olacak.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkan Ueda\u2019n\u0131n beklenmedik \u015fekilde hastaneye kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, kritik bir politika toplant\u0131s\u0131na g\u00fcnler kala ciddi bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor. Piyasa b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlam\u0131\u015f olsa da, politikan\u0131n ana mimar\u0131n\u0131n yoklu\u011fu bu sonucun kesinli\u011fini azalt\u0131yor. Bu durumun, Japon yeni ve devlet tahvillerinde oynakl\u0131k i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir zemin olu\u015fturdu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son veriler faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n may\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE verisi %2,7 ile gelerek %2\u2019lik hedefin bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Buna ek olarak, nihai Shunto \u00fccret pazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131nda ortalama art\u0131\u015f %4,1 oldu; bu 1993\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Himino, politika s\u00fcreklili\u011fini g\u00f6stermek ve g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi korumak i\u00e7in ad\u0131m atma bask\u0131s\u0131 hissedebilir.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, y\u00f6n\u00fc ne olursa olsun yende sert bir harekete pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Son 48 saatte 1 haftal\u0131k USD\/JPY ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n %8,9\u2019dan %12,5\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ola\u011fan d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte bir dalgalanmay\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131, 16 Haziran\u2019daki karar a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 etraf\u0131nda beklenen bu t\u00fcrb\u00fclanstan faydalanmam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ertelenmesi art\u0131k belirgin bir olas\u0131l\u0131k. Ge\u00e7ici bir liderlik ekibi, b\u00f6ylesine tarihi bir ad\u0131m i\u00e7in Ueda\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc beklemeyi tercih edebilir. Tarihsel olarak, merkez bankalar\u0131nda ani liderlik de\u011fi\u015fimleri k\u0131sa vadede daha temkinli ve stat\u00fckoyu koruyan bir yakla\u015f\u0131ma yol a\u00e7abiliyor. Bu t\u00fcr g\u00fcvercin s\u00fcrpriz, yende sert bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyerek USD\/JPY\u2019yi yeniden 160 seviyesine do\u011fru itebilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar\u0131 da izliyoruz; zira getiriler karara sert tepki verecek. BoJ\u2019un art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ertelemesi halinde getiriler ge\u00e7en ay g\u00f6r\u00fclen %0,8 seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilebilir. Tersine, bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 getirileri mevcut %1,05 seviyesinin kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yarak \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelerin yeniden test edilmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoJ Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ueda hastanede; kritik Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na kat\u0131lam\u0131yor. 25 bp faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (%1) beklentisi s\u00fcrse de belirsizlik yen ve JGB\u2019de oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; opsiyonlar sert hareket fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47692,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49660","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49660"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49660\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47692"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49660"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49660"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49660"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}