Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi (HICP), may\u0131sta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi; \u00f6nceki %4,6 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Art\u0131\u015f, ay i\u00e7inde HICP enflasyonunda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir h\u0131zlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son okuma, y\u0131ll\u0131k fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu\u011funu ve dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin p\u00fcr\u00fczs\u00fcz ilerlemedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. May\u0131staki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket, bir \u00f6nceki %4,6\u2019l\u0131k oran\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi ve uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda enflasyonu %5\u2019e yak\u0131n tuttu.<\/p>\n
Yunanistan\u2019da uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyonun may\u0131sta %4,6\u2019dan %4,9\u2019a h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu yukar\u0131 hareket, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n beklenildi\u011fi gibi zay\u0131flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu durum, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) para politikas\u0131nda yak\u0131nda rahat\u00e7a gev\u015femeye gidebilece\u011fi anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, piyasan\u0131n ECB\u2019nin faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma riskini yeterince fiyatlam\u0131yor olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Euro B\u00f6lgesi genelinde enflasyon da k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce %3,1\u2019e y\u00fckselmi\u015fti; Yunanistan verisi de \u201ckat\u0131\u201d enflasyon temas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu nedenle, y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz indirimi fiyatlayan t\u00fcrev fiyatlamalar\u0131nda bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131 daha cazip hale getiriyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 indirimleri 2027\u2019ye ertelemesi halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilecek faiz swaplar\u0131 ve EURIBOR vadeli i\u015flemlerine bak\u0131yoruz. Ge\u00e7en ay yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 seviyesinde bulunan bu y\u0131l faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu t\u00fcr haberlerle belirgin \u015fekilde gerileyebilir.<\/p>\n
Kamu bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 taraf\u0131nda, bu enflasyon verisi Yunan tahvil fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz ve getirilerin y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz. Yunanistan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131klar\u0131 ile Alman Bund\u2019lar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n (spread) yakla\u015f\u0131k 125 baz puana kadar daralm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek risk primi talep etmesiyle yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilir. Yunan devlet tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131nda f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda ise kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, \u015firket marjlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rabilir ve t\u00fcketici talebini zay\u0131flatabilir; bu da Atina Borsas\u0131 i\u00e7in r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirebilir. Tarihsel olarak beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fcksek enflasyon d\u00f6nemleri, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7in ASE Genel Endeksi\u2019nde koruyucu put al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 veya straddle gibi oynakl\u0131k-pozitif pozisyonlar kurmay\u0131 temkinli bir strateji haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz enflasyon \u015foku: Yunanistan HICP may\u0131sta %4,9\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Dezenflasyon sekteye u\u011frarken ECB\u2019nin gev\u015feme alan\u0131 daral\u0131yor; swap\/EURIBOR fiyatlamas\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcr, tahvil faizleri-spread artar, Atina hisselerinde koruma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49653","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49653","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49653"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49653\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49653"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49653"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49653"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}