Dolar endeksi, ABD\u2019nin may\u0131s ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE verisi \u00f6ncesinde ge\u00e7en haftaki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 korudu. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini canl\u0131 tutup tutmayaca\u011f\u0131. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin May\u0131s 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yeniden %4,0\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 beklenirken, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,9\u2019a y\u00fckselmesi; \u00f6nceki %2,8 seviyesine k\u0131yasla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u015faret ediyor. Daha yumu\u015fak bir ayl\u0131k %0,2\u2019lik \u00e7ekirdek okuma ise ba\u015fl\u0131ca a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu senaryo k\u0131sa vadeli tahvil getirilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerek Dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de daha y\u00fcksek reel faizler, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n \u201cDolar\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131\u201d temas\u0131na dayal\u0131 i\u015flemlerin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken Alt\u0131n, Bitcoin ve \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. \u0130zlenen kritik seviyeler aras\u0131nda alt\u0131nda 4.100$\/ons ve bitcoinde 60.000$ \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, hareketin ta\u015f\u0131y\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 olarak daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir USD\/CHF paritesi de takip ediliyor. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler ve dikkatlerin yar\u0131nki \u00dcFE\u2019ye ve gelecek haftaki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evrilmesiyle DXY\u2019nin geri \u00e7ekilmelerde destek bulmas\u0131 bekleniyor: Zay\u0131f bir \u00e7ekirdek veri 99,50\/60 testini g\u00fcndeme getirebilirken, yak\u0131n vadeli patikan\u0131n 100,40\/50\u2019ye do\u011fru oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Dolar, bu Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak may\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisi \u00f6ncesinde son d\u00f6nemdeki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon okumas\u0131n\u0131n, piyasalar\u0131n y\u0131l sonu \u00f6ncesinde olas\u0131 bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine neden olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. ABD reel faizlerindeki bu devam eden g\u00fc\u00e7, Dolar\u0131n zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde iyi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan i\u015flemler \u00fczerinde (alt\u0131n ve kripto gibi varl\u0131klarda uzun pozisyonlar) bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Kilit veri, May\u0131s 2026 T\u00dcFE raporu olacak; burada \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun ay baz\u0131nda %0,4 artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu da y\u0131ll\u0131k oran\u0131, Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin \u00fczerinde ve \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek \u015fekilde %2,7 gibi inat\u00e7\u0131 bir seviyeye ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ge\u00e7en haftaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam raporunu izliyor: Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 215 bin artarak Fed\u2019e faiz indirimini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesi i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerek\u00e7e sundu.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, y\u00fckselen DXY\u2019den faydalanan opsiyon stratejilerine bak\u0131yoruz. Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, beklenen yukar\u0131 hareket i\u00e7in do\u011frudan pozisyonlanma sa\u011flar. T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesinde ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesi, \u00f6zellikle veri beklendi\u011fi gibi s\u0131cak gelirse, bu opsiyonlar\u0131 daha de\u011ferli k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, di\u011fer varl\u0131klarda \u00f6nemli destek seviyelerinin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 izliyoruz; bu, Dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn teyidi anlam\u0131na gelebilir. Alt\u0131n 2.500$ seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rsa sat\u0131m (put) al\u0131m\u0131 f\u0131rsatlar\u0131na, bitcoin 95.000$ seviyesini yeniden test ederse benzer \u015fekilde put f\u0131rsatlar\u0131na bak\u0131labilir. USD\/CHF\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Dolar g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc ifade etti\u011fimiz ba\u015fl\u0131ca ara\u00e7 olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik ana risk, beklentiden daha zay\u0131f, \u00f6rne\u011fin ayl\u0131k %0,2\u2019lik bir \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE bask\u0131s\u0131; bu, DXY\u2019nin 104,80 b\u00f6lgesini test edecek \u015fekilde gerilemesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Ancak kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon ve veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 bir Fed \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, geri \u00e7ekilmeleri al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z DXY\u2019nin 106,50 seviyesine do\u011fru trendini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar, T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi g\u00fc\u00e7te: \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon s\u00fcrprizi Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 besleyip DXY\u2019yi destekleyebilir. Zay\u0131f veri risk; alt\u0131n\/bitcoin bask\u0131da, USD\/CHF izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49652","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49652","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49652"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49652\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49652"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49652"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49652"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}