Macaristan\u2019\u0131n T\u00dcFE enflasyonu May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,1\u2019den %1,8\u2019e gerileyerek %2,2\u2019lik piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MNB) tolerans band\u0131n\u0131n alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131na indi. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz k\u0131smen idari akaryak\u0131t fiyat tavanlar\u0131 ve daha \u00f6nceki h\u00fck\u00fcmet tedbirleri gibi arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc fakt\u00f6rlere ba\u011flan\u0131rken, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendirilen k\u00fcresel enerji ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n enflasyonist etkisinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu ifade edildi. \u00c7ekirdek\/enflasyonun alt kalemlerine ili\u015fkin g\u00f6stergelerin hedefle uyumlu seyretti\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
MNB Ba\u015fkan\u0131, Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun (MPC) 26 May\u0131s\u2019ta faiz indirimi se\u00e7ene\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, ancak daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 enflasyon patikas\u0131 ve \u00fclke risk primindeki de\u011fi\u015fimleri gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek, oybirli\u011fi olmayan bir kararla politika faizini sabit tuttu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Politika faizinin %6,25 ve enflasyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 seviyesinde olmas\u0131, ima edilen reel faizin y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. G\u00f6zler \u015fimdi 23 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda; burada faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, EUR\/HUF\u2019un \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrekte 355\u2013360 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Macaristan Merkez \u0130statistik Ofisi taraf\u0131ndan May\u0131s enflasyonunun %1,8 ile merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n tolerans band\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda teyit edilmesi, parasal gev\u015feme i\u00e7in alan yarat\u0131yor. Bu seviye, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun da %2,8\u2019e gerilemesiyle birlikte, Macaristan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (MNB) ad\u0131m atmak i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e sunuyor. 23 Haziran\u2019daki yakla\u015fan PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Mevcut %6,25 politika faizi, forinti destekleyen anlaml\u0131 bir reel faiz fark\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Vadeli faiz anla\u015fmalar\u0131 (FRA) 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirime %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7iyor; bu da piyasan\u0131n bu hamleyi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. B\u00f6yle bir indirim sonras\u0131nda dahi politika faizi, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n %3,25\u2019lik g\u00f6sterge faizinin kayda de\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00fczerinde kalarak forintin carry trade cazibesini koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Faiz indiriminin kur taraf\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun da belirgin bir sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak EUR\/HUF kurunu 355\u2013360 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 tuttu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu ortam opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip; zira EUR\/HUF opsiyonlar\u0131nda 3 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite %10\u2019un \u00fczerindeki seviyelerden %7,5\u2019lik son dip seviyeye geriledi. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu beklenen band\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na yerle\u015ftirilen kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f: Macaristan\u2019da T\u00dcFE %1,8\u2019e inerek beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek %2,8. MNB faizi %6,25\u2019te tuttu, 23 Haziran\u2019da 25 bp indirim olas\u0131. EUR\/HUF 355-360, volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49651","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49651","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49651"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49651\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49651"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49651"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49651"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}