EUR\/USD \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn\u00fcnde de hafif y\u00fckselerek 1,1550 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ancak 1,1500\u2019e yak\u0131n iki ayl\u0131k dip seviyelere yak\u0131n seyrini korudu ve eski destek b\u00f6lgesi olan 1,1575\u2019in alt\u0131nda bask\u0131land\u0131. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n savunma ve radar sistemlerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131flarken, Tahran\u2019\u0131n Bahreyn\u2019deki ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerine misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla gerilim t\u0131rmand\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n dolar ve petroldeki tepkilerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve orta derecede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimli oldu\u011fu belirtildi. G\u00f6zler daha sonra May\u0131s ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne (T\u00dcFE) \u00e7evrilecek. Verinin, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporunun ard\u0131ndan enflasyonun \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor; bu da Fed\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan parite 1,1505\u2019in hemen \u00fczerinde dalgalan\u0131rken, d\u00f6rt saatlik grafiklerde momentum hafif negatif: G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda, Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama\/Iraksama (MACD) ise s\u0131\u011f pozitif b\u00f6lgede kald\u0131. 1,1575 \u00fczerine bir atak, oda\u011f\u0131 4\u20135 Haziran zirvelerinin bulundu\u011fu 1,1645\u2019e, ard\u0131ndan May\u0131s sonu zirvesi 1,1685\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 tarafta g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dipler 1,1530 civar\u0131ndayken, destek Pazartesi g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,1505\u2019te; bunun alt\u0131ndaysa 30 Mart dibi 1,1443 g\u00fcndeme geliyor.<\/p>\n
Euro\u2019nun 1,1500 seviyesi civar\u0131nda iki ayl\u0131k diplerde zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc denemelerin ise 1,1575 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcm dikkat, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s ABD enflasyon verisine \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda. Piyasa g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD Dolar\u0131 pozisyonlanmas\u0131 i\u00e7inde ve bu kritik rapor \u00f6ncesinde dolar aleyhine pozisyon almaya temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu yo\u011fun odaklanma yerinde; zira ge\u00e7en Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanan istihdam raporu beklentileri a\u015farak 250 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yeni istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Bu, Nisan ay\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8 ile s\u0131cak gelen T\u00dcFE verisinin ard\u0131ndan, Fed\u2019i daha temkinli bir noktaya itti. Sonu\u00e7 olarak vadeli piyasalar art\u0131k 2026\u2019da faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131r olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da dolar\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, EUR\/USD\u2019de 1,1500 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir sarkmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc fiyatlamak amac\u0131yla put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. T\u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlarda ima edilen volatilite %8,5 ile alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n zirvesine y\u00fckseldi; bu da prim maliyetini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in ay\u0131 put spread gibi stratejileri cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekette getiri imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunarken riski net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc destekleyen bir di\u011fer unsur da Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden artan gerilim nedeniyle olu\u015fan genel riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin y\u00fckselmesi. Bu ortam, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonun Fed\u2019i piyasan\u0131n ilk \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden \u00e7ok daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faizleri korumaya zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022-2023 d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. \u015eu anda benzer bir dinami\u011fin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor olabiliriz.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde 1,1505 deste\u011finin net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali olacakt\u0131r. B\u00f6yle bir hareket, stop-loss emirlerinde zincirleme tetiklenmeye yol a\u00e7abilir ve 1,1443 hedefine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kap\u0131 aralayabilir. Yeni k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 veya mevcutlar\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in 1,1505 seviyesini kritik bir tetikleyici olarak izliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik riskler ve ABD T\u00dcFE beklentisiyle EUR\/USD 1,1550\u2019de tutunuyor ancak 1,1575 alt\u0131nda bask\u0131l\u0131. 1,1505 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 1,1443 hedeflenebilir; volatilite y\u00fckseliyor, put spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49646","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49646","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49646"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49646\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49646"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49646"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49646"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}