{"id":49644,"date":"2026-06-10T10:36:27","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T10:36:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/ecb-faiz-artirimi-beklenirken-ve-ingiltere-gsyh-verisi-boe-gorunumunu-sekillendirirken-eur-gbp-08625-yakininda-yatay-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-10T10:36:27","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T10:36:27","slug":"ecb-faiz-artirimi-beklenirken-ve-ingiltere-gsyh-verisi-boe-gorunumunu-sekillendirirken-eur-gbp-08625-yakininda-yatay-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ecb-faiz-artirimi-beklenirken-ve-ingiltere-gsyh-verisi-boe-gorunumunu-sekillendirirken-eur-gbp-08625-yakininda-yatay-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB Faiz Art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 Beklenirken ve \u0130ngiltere GSYH Verisi BoE G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc \u015eekillendirirken EUR\/GBP 0,8625 Yak\u0131n\u0131nda Yatay Seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/GBP, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 0,8625 civar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6sterdi; piyasalar, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde bekle-g\u00f6r moduna ge\u00e7ti. Ard\u0131ndan dikkatler Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019a \u00e7evriliyor; cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ayl\u0131k GSYH verilerinin, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) bir sonraki hamlesine ili\u015fkin beklentilere y\u00f6n vermesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

ECB\u2019nin haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizlerini 25 baz puan art\u0131rmas\u0131 geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bekleniyor; bu ad\u0131m, yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ilk art\u0131\u015f olacak. Bu hamle ayn\u0131 zamanda, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enerji fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ran ilk b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta ise BoE politika yap\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 Alan Taylor, en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryo ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedik\u00e7e faizlerin sabit tutulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; CNBC\u2019ye g\u00f6re piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, bu y\u0131l iki indirim beklentisinden 3,25\u2019e do\u011fru bir patikaya ve aral\u0131k \u00f6ncesinde 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcne kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n

ECB ve BoE Aras\u0131nda Politika Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131<\/h3>\n

Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki belirgin politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ECB\u2019nin yar\u0131n, 11 Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 beklenirken, BoE\u2019nin temkinli kalmas\u0131, euronun sterlin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi i\u00e7in temel bir gerek\u00e7e yarat\u0131yor. Bu da EUR\/GBP kurunun mevcut 0,8625 seviyesinden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

ECB\u2019nin beklenen art\u0131\u015f\u0131, y\u00fckselen enflasyona do\u011frudan bir yan\u0131t. Son veriler, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyonun ge\u00e7en ay %2,7\u2019ye h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma kaynakl\u0131 enerji \u015fokunun bunu yukar\u0131 itti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 daha agresif ad\u0131mlar atmaya zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki tabloyu and\u0131r\u0131yor. ECB\u2019nin enflasyonla m\u00fccadele kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse kesin hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer yandan BoE, k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir i\u00e7 ekonomi nedeniyle daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma konusunda k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta GSYH\u2019nin 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde yaln\u0131zca %0,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma konusunda isteksiz davranmas\u0131n\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u0130ngiltere enflasyonunun %2,5 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini korumas\u0131na ra\u011fmen bu ihtiyat, sterlini \u015fu a\u015famada daha az cazip bir para birimi haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n

EUR\/GBP \u0130\u00e7in Pozisyonlanma ve Piyasa Beklentileri<\/h3>\n

Bu nedenle, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 0,8700 civar\u0131nda olan ve Temmuz 2026 vadeli EUR\/GBP al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, ECB karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan paritede beklenen y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken, olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Kritik g\u00fcndem ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131, yar\u0131nki ECB bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 ile cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc, 12 Haziran\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u0130ngiltere GSYH verileri.<\/p>\n

Bu geli\u015fmeler \u00f6ncesinde EUR\/GBP opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite zaten y\u00fckseldi; bu da piyasan\u0131n beklenti d\u00fczeyini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Swap piyasas\u0131ndaki g\u00fcncel fiyatlama, ECB\u2019den 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yor; bu nedenle as\u0131l odak, ikinci bir art\u0131\u015fa ili\u015fkin y\u00f6nlendirmede olacak. Ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya dair verilecek herhangi bir sinyalin, EUR\/GBP paritesini belirgin bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasa nefesini tuttu: EUR\/GBP 0,8625\u2019te yatay. G\u00f6zler per\u015fembe ECB\u2019nin %90 olas\u0131 25 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, cuma UK GSYH\u2019de. Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 euroyu destekliyor; 0,8700 call opsiyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47765,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49644","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49644"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49644\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47765"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49644"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49644"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49644"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}