Piyasalar, ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (BLS) a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 ABD May\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisi ve Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn ilk saatlerinde sakin seyretti. Dolar Endeksi Pazartesi ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerilerken Avrupa seans\u0131nda 100,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; ABD hisse endeksi vadeli i\u015flemleri ise %0,15 ila %0,5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. ABD y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019nin May\u0131s\u2019ta %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi, Nisan\u2019daki %3,8 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan jeopolitik risk y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu; Axios, hedeflerin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcneyinde oldu\u011funu bildirdi. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 (IRGC), Kuveyt\u2019teki Ali Al Salem Hava \u00dcss\u00fc\u2019n\u00fc \u0130HA\u2019larla vurdu\u011funu ve ilave kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar konusunda uyar\u0131da bulundu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Reuters\u2019\u0131n bir ABD\u2019li yetkiliye dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde, ABD\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 hedefi vurdu\u011fu ve \u0130ran f\u00fczeleri ile \u0130HA\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse tamam\u0131n\u0131n engellendi\u011fi belirtildi. Asya\u2019da \u00c7in\u2019in T\u00dcFE\u2019si y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,2\u2019de sabit kal\u0131rken, \u00dcFE %2,8\u2019den %3,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi; AUD\/USD 0,7020 civar\u0131nda seyretti. USD\/CAD, 1,3970 yak\u0131nlar\u0131ndaki alt\u0131 ay\u0131n zirvesinin ard\u0131ndan gev\u015feyerek 1,3950\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi; BoC politika faizi beklentileri %2,25 etraf\u0131nda topland\u0131. Alt\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %1\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.200 dolara geriledi. EUR\/USD, ECB \u00f6ncesinde 1,1550 civar\u0131nda; GBP\/USD 1,3400\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckselirken USD\/JPY, Japonya \u00dcFE\u2019sinin %5,3 ve %5,5\u2019e k\u0131yasla %6,3 artmas\u0131yla 160,00\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutundu.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bug\u00fcn\u00fcn kritik ABD enflasyon verisini beklerken piyasalarda \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. ABD Dolar Endeksi 104,50 civar\u0131nda istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korurken, ABD hisse endeksi vadeli i\u015flemleri a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesi tedirginli\u011fi yans\u0131tarak hafif ekside a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu temkinli hava, piyasa tepkisinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131na inanan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in ima edilen volatilitenin sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc cazip olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcn\u00fcn ana g\u00fcndemi May\u0131s T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE). Ekonomistler y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,5\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Beklentilerin \u00fczerinde bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc bitirdi\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki anlat\u0131y\u0131 zorlayabilir ve faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7ramaya neden olabilir. Bu riske kar\u015f\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %3,50\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. USD\/CAD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirleyici unsur, BoC\u2019nin tonunun ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ayr\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131 olacak; zira politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, d\u00f6viz paritelerinin ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7lerinden biri. Paritenin belirli bir bantta kalmas\u0131 durumunda getiri sa\u011flayan opsiyon stratejilerinde, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n benzer \u201cbekleme\u201d modunu yans\u0131tan f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilim, piyasa kayg\u0131s\u0131 ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeli bir taban olu\u015fturmaya devam ediyor. Cboe Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) dip seviyelerinden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kademeli hareket ederek son d\u00f6nemde 17 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n portf\u00f6y korumas\u0131na daha fazla y\u00f6neldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. B\u00f6lgede t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flara en duyarl\u0131 alanlar olduklar\u0131 i\u00e7in petrol ve savunma hisseleri t\u00fcrevlerini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, k\u00fcresel enflasyon patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik ve jeopolitik risk deste\u011fiyle ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.450 dolar civar\u0131nda sa\u011flam duruyor. 2022-2024 enflasyon d\u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin tarihsel veriler, merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131 belirsiz g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n alt\u0131na y\u00f6neldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Hem enflasyon hem de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla alt\u0131n al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (call) ilginin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta, EUR\/USD\u2019nin yar\u0131nki Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 1,0900 civar\u0131nda sakin seyretti\u011fini not ediyoruz. Japon \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131na i\u015faret etmesiyle, piyasa Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan olas\u0131 bir politika de\u011fi\u015fimine dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izliyor. 158,00 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda dalgalanan USD\/JPY\u2019de potansiyel oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlarla pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: May\u0131s ABD T\u00dcFE ve BoC karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi risk i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131f. Jeopolitik gerilim y\u00fcksek, dolar yatay. Alt\u0131n destekli, USD\/CAD gev\u015fiyor; opsiyonlarla volatilite aray\u0131\u015f\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47676,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49643","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49643"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49643\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49643"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49643"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49643"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}