EUR\/JPY, Euro\u2019nun Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinden destek bulmas\u0131yla \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 185,30 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta y\u00fckseldi. Piyasalar ECB\u2019nin temel faiz oranlar\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Bankan\u0131n g\u00f6revi fiyat istikrar\u0131 olup yakla\u015f\u0131k %2\u2019lik enflasyon hedefler; faiz politikas\u0131 y\u0131lda sekiz toplant\u0131da Y\u00f6netim Konseyi taraf\u0131ndan belirlenir.<\/p>\n
Yen, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) h\u0131zlansa da geride kald\u0131. \u00dcFE May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %6,3 artarak Nisan\u2019\u0131n yukar\u0131 revize edilen %5,3 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve %5,5\u2019lik beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; bu, son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 toptan enflasyonuna i\u015faret ediyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, daha \u015fahin bir Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; piyasalar gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131 olarak ECB, 2009-11 d\u00f6neminde, 2015\u2019te ve Covid pandemisi s\u0131ras\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan Niceliksel Gev\u015feme\u2019yi (QE) devreye alabilirken; Niceliksel S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (QT) ise ilave tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 durdurarak ve vadesi gelen anapara geri \u00f6demelerinin yeniden yat\u0131r\u0131ma y\u00f6nlendirilmesine son vererek QE\u2019yi tersine \u00e7evirir.<\/p>\n
EUR\/JPY paritesi 185,30 civar\u0131nda \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirvelerde seyrederken, yak\u0131n vadeli riskin yar\u0131nki ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 neredeyse tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda; bu nedenle Euro\u2019nun tepkisi faiz karar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. ECB\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn sonuna yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair sinyaller dikkatle izlenmeli.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,9 ile kat\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren son Eurostat verileri ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015funu gerek\u00e7elendiriyor; ancak bu, piyasaca zaten biliniyor. Bu y\u00fczden, faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n kendisinden ziyade bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 etraf\u0131nda volatilite bekliyoruz. Ba\u015fkan Lagarde\u2019\u0131n gelecek art\u0131\u015flarda duraklamaya i\u015faret eden herhangi bir imas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda devam eden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye pozisyonlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle Euro\u2019da geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak daha b\u00fcy\u00fck f\u0131rsat, gelecek haftaki BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yat\u0131yor. Japonya\u2019da \u201c\u015fok\u201d d\u00fczeydeki %6,3\u2019l\u00fck \u00fcretici enflasyonu, BoJ \u00fczerindeki ultra gev\u015fek politikay\u0131 terk etme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak BoJ son derece temkinli davranm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; bu da piyasalar\u0131n bu y\u0131l birden fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 agresif bi\u00e7imde fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k kayna\u011f\u0131 haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu gerilim nedeniyle, net bir y\u00f6nsel pozisyon alman\u0131n fazla riskli oldu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz. Bunun yerine, BoJ karar\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak belirgin bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131 oldu\u011fundan, volatilite sat\u0131n almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz. Bir haftal\u0131k EUR\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck; bu da piyasan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir harekete haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getirili Yen ile bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek getirili Euro sat\u0131n alarak kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 klasik bir \u201ccarry trade\u201d senaryosu. BoJ\u2019dan gelebilecek \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrpriz, bu pozisyonlar\u0131n sert \u015fekilde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini tetikleyebilir; Yen\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011ferlenme ve EUR\/JPY\u2019de keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Tarihsel olarak, ge\u00e7mi\u015f finansal d\u00f6ng\u00fclerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen benzer tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fler, birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde haftalar\u0131n birikimini silebilmektedir.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019da bir politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn yak\u0131n oldu\u011funa inanan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, EUR\/JPY\u2019de \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Etkili bi\u00e7imde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Yen\u2019e y\u00f6nelik kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 bir beklenti olu\u015ftururken, azami olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 da opsiyon primiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u015fekilde tan\u0131mlar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/JPY 185,30\u2019da: ECB\u2019den 25 bp art\u0131\u015f fiyatland\u0131, as\u0131l risk Lagarde\u2019\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirmesi. Japon \u00dcFE\u2019si %6,3; BoJ \u015fahinle\u015firse carry trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcr, volatilite ve put opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47664,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49642","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49642","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49642"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49642\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47664"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49642"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49642"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49642"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}