Rupi, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yataya yak\u0131n bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenerek USD\/INR paritesini 95,15\u2019e do\u011fru \u00e7ekti. Bu hareket, ABD\u2019nin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u00fczerinde bir Apache helikopterinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130ran\u2019a misilleme yapmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen geldi. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; 18 Haziran vadeli MCX Ham Petrol kontrat\u0131 %0,8 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 8.490\u2019a \u00e7\u0131karken, 8.212\u2019den ba\u015flayan Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc erken d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn kabaca yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da geri ald\u0131. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7 saatlerde CENTCOM, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019a ait hava savunma, yer kontrol ve radar sahalar\u0131n\u0131n vuruldu\u011funu belirtirken; \u0130ran da \u00dcrd\u00fcn, Kuveyt ve Bahreyn\u2019deki ABD hava \u00fcslerine y\u00f6nelik f\u00fcze at\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verdi.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131 Kurumsal Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII), Haziran ay\u0131nda \u015fu ana kadar her i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde net sat\u0131c\u0131 konumunda; toplam \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f 60.529,36 crore rupi oldu. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda ayr\u0131ca 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD May\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisi var: man\u015fet enflasyonun Nisan\u2019daki %3,8\u2019den %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ise %2,8\u2019den %2,9\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor. CME FedWatch, bu y\u0131l en az bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %72 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE\u2019sinin de %3,48\u2019den %4\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Teknik tarafta USD\/INR \u201cSimetrik \u00dc\u00e7gen\u201d formasyonu i\u00e7inde izleniyor; 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 95,46 seviyesinde, RSI 40\u201360 band\u0131nda. Yukar\u0131da 96,00 ard\u0131ndan 97,10 diren\u00e7; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 95,04 ve 94,49 destek olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan gerilim ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen Hindistan rupisinin ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir g\u00fc\u00e7 sergiledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durum, temel dinamiklerin rupi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret etmesi nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in karma\u015f\u0131k bir tablo yarat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle USD\/INR paritesindeki mevcut geri \u00e7ekilmede temkinli olunmal\u0131 ve hareket potansiyel bir f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki alevlenme ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itiyor; MCX kontrat\u0131 8.490\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131yor. Petrol Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n en g\u00fcncel verilerine g\u00f6re Hindistan ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal ediyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin tarihsel olarak rupi \u00fczerinde belirgin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. Benzer bir desen 2023\u2019\u00fcn sonlar\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 USD\/INR paritesinin yeni zirveleri test etmesiyle e\u015fle\u015fmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur ise yabanc\u0131 kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n (FII) Hindistan piyasalar\u0131ndan h\u0131zlanan bir tempoda para \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131. Bu ay tek ba\u015f\u0131na 60.000 crore rupiyi a\u015fan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f, rupi istikrar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 bayrak niteli\u011finde. NSDL verileri de bu e\u011filimi teyit ederek yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Hint hisselerinde 12 i\u015flem seans\u0131d\u0131r \u00fcst \u00fcste net sat\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve belirgin bir \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm g\u00f6zler \u015fimdi g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisinde; verinin enflasyonda h\u0131zlanmaya i\u015faret etmesi bekleniyor. Beklentilerin \u00fczerinde (\u201cs\u0131cak\u201d) bir enflasyon verisi, Fed\u2019den faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re de bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %72 seviyesinde; bu da rupiye k\u0131yasla dolar tutmay\u0131 daha cazip hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flem perspektifinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu ortam USD\/INR paritesinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00dcFE verisinin tetikleyebilece\u011fi olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, 96,00 diren\u00e7 seviyesine yakla\u015fan kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Teknik analizde not edilen yatay seyir, oynakl\u0131k artmadan \u00f6nce pozisyonlanma i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat sunabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n mevcut karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, s\u00fcrpriz hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan stratejiler de g\u00fcndeme al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. Baz senaryomuz rupi zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olsa da, enflasyon verisi sonras\u0131nda her iki y\u00f6ne g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in opsiyonlarla straddle stratejisi daha ihtiyatl\u0131 bir se\u00e7enek olabilir. 95,04 destek seviyesi kritik bir g\u00f6sterge olarak izlenecek; bu seviyenin net \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sorgulatabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz rupi ata\u011f\u0131! Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve y\u00fckselen petrol fiyat\u0131na ra\u011fmen USD\/INR 95,15\u2019e indi; ancak FII \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, beklenen ABD-Hindistan T\u00dcFE ve Fed faiz riski bask\u0131y\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49640","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49640"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49640\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}