USD\/CAD, \u00f6nceki seansta kaydedilen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,3950 civar\u0131nda el de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Hareket, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden t\u0131rmanan gerilimlere ba\u011fl\u0131 riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fi bir ortamda gelirken; Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ABD\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 konumu nedeniyle, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019na (CAD) destek sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Petrol, \u0130srail ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara ara vermesinin ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fanan k\u0131sa geri \u00e7ekilmeden sonra yeniden y\u00fckseldi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n gerilimler tekrar alevlendi. Haberlere g\u00f6re ABD, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u0130sfahan\u2019dan en az \u00fc\u00e7 balistik f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n k\u0131y\u0131 hedeflerine \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc dalga sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenledi. Bu geli\u015fme, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda bir ABD taarruz helikopterini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesinin ard\u0131ndan Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen ilk ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 izledi. Bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen ABD May\u0131s istihdam verileri ve Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle peki\u015ferek enflasyon endi\u015felerini ve y\u00fcksek faiz beklentilerini besliyor. Kanada taraf\u0131nda ise Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC), faiz politikas\u0131yla enflasyonu %1\u2013%3 band\u0131nda hedeflerken; d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi ve Kanada\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat kalemi olan petrol CAD\u2019in ana belirleyicileri olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7eli\u015fkili etkenlerin piyasada belirsizlik yaratmas\u0131 nedeniyle USD\/CAD paritesinin dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Kanada dolar\u0131, y\u00fcksek seyreden ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan bir miktar destek bulurken, bu destek ABD dolar\u0131ndaki genel g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyle dengeleniyor. Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda belirgin bir y\u00f6n hareketi i\u00e7in mevcut kilidi a\u00e7acak net bir kataliz\u00f6re ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Petrolde jeopolitik risk primi yeniden ana unsur haline gelirken, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde sa\u011flam bi\u00e7imde tutunuyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7, devam eden OPEC+ \u00fcretim kesintileri ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck yo\u011funluklu ancak s\u00fcren gerilimlerle destekleniyor; bu da emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Tarihsel olarak, 2022\u2019de g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz gibi petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n sert y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemler \u00e7o\u011fu kez loonie\u2019nin (CAD) g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle ayn\u0131 zamana denk gelmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Kanada dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in temel r\u00fczg\u00e2r tersine, ABD ile faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u015flayarak politika faizini %4,75\u2019e indirdi\u011fini, Fed\u2019in ise politika faizini %5,25\u2013%5,50 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu\u011funu g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu belirgin fark, Kanada dolar\u0131na k\u0131yasla ABD dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha cazip hale getirerek USD\/CAD \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son ekonomik veriler de merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; son ABD istihdam raporu 250 binin \u00fczerinde s\u00fcrpriz bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Kanada\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stergeleri daha zay\u0131f seyretti ve BoC\u2019un daha g\u00fcvercin duru\u015fu i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e sundu. Bu temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Kanada dolar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015flerin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, ani bir petrol fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunurken USD\/CAD\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan stratejilerin de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. USD\/CAD\u2019de al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak, ABD\u2019de ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fcn veya riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n pariteyi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 halinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle getiri elde etmenin bir yolu olabilir. Band\u0131n korunmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyenler i\u00e7in ise, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde kalan (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak prim geliri toplamak ad\u0131na uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik gerilim ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileriyle USD\/CAD 1,3950\u2019de tutunuyor. Petrol 85 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnde CAD\u2019i desteklese de Fed-BoC faiz fark\u0131 bask\u0131n. Parite bantta; net kataliz\u00f6r bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49636","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49636","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49636"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49636\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49636"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49636"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49636"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}