AUD\/USD, \u00c7in\u2019in May\u0131s ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE (CPI) ve \u00dcFE (PPI) verileri \u00f6ncesinde ve ard\u0131ndan ABD May\u0131s T\u00dcFE verisine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131yla \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde 0,7020 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek ikinci g\u00fcnde de geriledi. Reuters\u2019\u0131n, ABD\u2019nin Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan gerilimin yeniden alevlenmesiyle \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi\u011fini bildirmesinin ard\u0131ndan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131flarken ABD dolar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Haberde, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Tahran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda bir ABD Apache helikopterini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Trump, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc daha erken saatlerde \u0130ran ile ABD\u2019nin bir anla\u015fmaya yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu da ifade etmi\u015fti; ancak nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndaki ate\u015fkesten bu yana ilerleme s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kal\u0131c\u0131 belirsizlik, bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131rken enflasyon endi\u015felerini y\u00fcksek tutuyor ve daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri peki\u015ftiriyor. ABD\u2019de May\u0131s ay\u0131 istihdam verisinin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 da bu y\u0131l Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini y\u00fckseltti. Avustralya\u2019da ise t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni yeniden zay\u0131flad\u0131; Westpac\u2013Melbourne Institute T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi Haziran\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 80,6\u2019ya geriledi. Bu, y\u0131l i\u00e7indeki d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olurken son onlarca y\u0131l\u0131n en zay\u0131f okumalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yer ald\u0131. RBA, %2-3 enflasyon hedefini izlerken, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat kalemi olan demir cevheri 2021\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k 118 milyar dolar de\u011ferindeydi.<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD paritesinin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz ve bu e\u011filimin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00fcrmesi muhtemel. Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 gerilimlerin tetikledi\u011fi riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f havas\u0131 ile daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fimi, belirgin bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131yor. Federal Rezerv\u2019in duru\u015funu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilecek s\u00fcrprizler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yakla\u015fan ABD enflasyon verilerini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verileri ilk etapta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini beslerken, May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son ABD T\u00dcFE verisi enflasyonun %3,3\u2019e hafif\u00e7e so\u011fudu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. Bu durum bir miktar belirsizlik yaratsa da Fed\u2019in genel \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fu piyasadaki bask\u0131n tema olmaya devam ediyor. Bu ortam\u0131n, emtia para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz.<\/p>\n
Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n kilit ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019den gelen g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de bizim i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in May\u0131s ay\u0131 resmi imalat PMI verisi 49,5 ile fabrika faaliyetlerinde daralmaya i\u015faret etti. Bu durum, Avustralya ihracat\u0131na y\u00f6nelik talebi do\u011frudan zay\u0131flat\u0131yor ve AUD\u2019de olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019deki bu yava\u015flama, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli ihracat kalemi olan demir cevherini do\u011frudan etkiliyor. Demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ton ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 107 dolara geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck; bu, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 130 dolar \u00fczeri seviyelerden belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. S\u00fcregelen fiyat zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferinde temel bir dayana\u011f\u0131 a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yurti\u00e7inde de tablo cesaret verici de\u011fil; bu da temkinli duru\u015fumuzu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi %4,35\u2019te y\u00fcksek seviyede tutarken, t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni tarihsel dip seviyelere yak\u0131n. Bu s\u0131k\u0131 i\u00e7 ko\u015fullar, RBA\u2019ya manevra alan\u0131n\u0131 daralt\u0131yor ve AUD\u2019yi k\u00fcresel ekonomik dalgalanmalara kar\u015f\u0131 daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu fakt\u00f6rlerin ayn\u0131 noktada birle\u015fmesi nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda AUD\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesinin en ihtiyatl\u0131 strateji oldu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak ve kritik veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon almak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/USD 0,7020\u2019ye gerilerken g\u00f6zler \u00c7in T\u00dcFE\/\u00dcFE ve ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bo\u011fuyor, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. \u00c7in yava\u015flama-demir cevheri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc AUD\u2019yi zorluyor. Ralli sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47747,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49631","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49631"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49631\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47747"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49631"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49631"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49631"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}