Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya erken i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.235 dolara gerileyerek 23 Mart\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan gerilimler ve bu y\u0131l ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalinin piyasada daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle derinle\u015fti. Seans\u0131n ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde oda\u011fa, politika beklentilerini ve dolar\u0131 yeniden \u015fekillendirebilecek ABD May\u0131s T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi yerle\u015fecek.<\/p>\n
Reuters\u2019\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re ABD, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Tahran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda bir ABD Apache helikopterini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi. Trump, ayr\u0131ca nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndaki k\u0131r\u0131lgan ate\u015fkesin ard\u0131ndan iki taraf\u0131n bir anla\u015fmaya yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu da ayr\u0131 bir a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda dile getirdi. Piyasalar, beklentileri a\u015fan ABD May\u0131s istihdam verisine de tepki verirken; May\u0131s T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda nisanda %3,8\u2019den %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ise %2,8\u2019den %2,9\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Enflasyonun beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelmesi dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arak, getirisi olmayan ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n da alt\u0131na sarkan dolar bazl\u0131 metal \u00fczerinde ek bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n son zirvelerinden geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fini ve \u015fu s\u0131ralar 2.315 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc izliyoruz. Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n ana nedeni, piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in faiz indirimlerine ne zaman ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerini yeniden ayarlamas\u0131. Bu hafta herkesin izledi\u011fi kritik g\u00fcndem maddesi, Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde etkileyecek T\u00dcFE enflasyon raporu.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam raporu (272 bin yeni istihdam), ekonominin Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n zamanda faiz indirimini de\u011ferlendirmesi i\u00e7in fazla s\u0131cak oldu\u011funa bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 ikna etti. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, dolar\u0131n de\u011ferini ve tahvil getirilerini yukar\u0131 iterken, getirisi olmayan bir varl\u0131k olarak alt\u0131n\u0131 daha az cazip hale getiriyor. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, faiz beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fi ya da y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde zorlanma e\u011filiminde.<\/p>\n
Bu Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE verisi bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck e\u015fik konumunda. Nisan\u2019da man\u015fet enflasyonun %3,4 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinin ard\u0131ndan, beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelecek herhangi bir veri alt\u0131n taraf\u0131nda yeni bir belirgin sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re pozisyonland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ABD dolar\u0131nda ilave g\u00fc\u00e7lenme bekledi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcren jeopolitik gerilimler normalde alt\u0131n\u0131 desteklese de, bu fakt\u00f6r \u015fu an merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131n\u0131n gerisinde kal\u0131yor. 2022-2023 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u00fczere, piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 enflasyon ve Fed\u2019in buna verece\u011fi tepki. Bu da k\u00fcresel belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadede en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 taraf olmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde 2.300 dolar destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir sarkmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini ihtiyatl\u0131 buluyoruz. Yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla bu negatif duyarl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama gibi \u00f6nemli teknik seviyelerin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 da bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (ay\u0131) senaryosunu teyit edecektir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015f: XAU\/USD Asya\u2019da 23 Mart\u2019tan beri dipte. Ortado\u011fu gerilimi ve Fed\u2019in faizleri uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler May\u0131s T\u00dcFE\u2019de, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f derinle\u015febilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47828,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49627","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49627"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49627\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49627"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49627"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49627"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}