Sterlin\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi, GBP\/USD\u2019nin Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3350\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131ndan 1,3400\u2019\u0131n biraz \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan h\u0131zl\u0131ca s\u00f6nd\u00fc; parite burada 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama (EMA) ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra yeniden bu seviyenin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. British Retail Consortium (BRC), May\u0131s ay\u0131nda benzer ma\u011faza (like-for-like) perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,4 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; %0,6\u2019l\u0131k beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Nisan\u2019daki %3,4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirdi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131, ancak paritedeki hareket kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) politika faizi %3,75 seviyesinde; 30 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 8\u20131\u2019lik oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve bir \u015fahin muhalefet \u015ferhine kar\u015f\u0131n, piyasalar 18 Haziran\u2019da faiz de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi beklemiyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta diren\u00e7, 1,3400 civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019da bulunuyor; haziran ba\u015f\u0131nda her iki ortalaman\u0131n da alt\u0131na sark\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA ise 1,3450 civar\u0131nda. Destekler 1,3350 ve devam\u0131nda 1,3300 b\u00f6lgesinde izlenirken, g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stoch RSI orta bantta. S\u0131radaki kataliz\u00f6rler, \u00c7ar\u015famba 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE verisi (ayl\u0131k %0,5, y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2; \u00f6nceki %3,8; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,9) ve Cuma 06:00 GMT\u2019de gelecek \u0130ngiltere Nisan GSYH verisi (ayl\u0131k -%0,1 beklentisi; zay\u0131f imalat \u00fcretimiyle birlikte). CME FedWatch, 2026 i\u00e7in Fed faiz indirimi fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ise bir miktar y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Sterlin\u2019deki rallinin 1,3400 civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamada net \u015fekilde ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rd\u00fck; bu durum d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentimizi teyit ediyor. Bu red, GBP\/USD\u2019de kontrol\u00fcn h\u00e2l\u00e2 sat\u0131c\u0131larda oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu seviyeye do\u011fru olas\u0131 geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri k\u0131sa pozisyon art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
BoE stagflasyon ikilemine s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda ve bunun sterlini bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. \u0130ngiltere ekonomisindeki k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k belirgin; Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi (ONS) k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce ekonominin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l resesyona kaymas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ilk \u00e7eyrekte yaln\u0131zca %0,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u00f6zellikle enerji \u015fokunun enflasyonu yeniden yukar\u0131 itti\u011fi bir ortamda BoE\u2019ye para birimini desteklemek i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rakm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesinde ABD dolar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc belirliyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir T\u00dcFE verisi, Federal Rezerv\u2019in 2026\u2019da faiz indirimine gitmeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc peki\u015ftirerek \u00f6nceki beklentilere k\u0131yasla anlaml\u0131 bir de\u011fi\u015fimi teyit edebilir. Varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar civar\u0131nda seyreden WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, Fed\u2019i bekle-g\u00f6r konumunda tutabilecek kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Stratejimiz, GBP\/USD 1,3400 direncinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak kullanmak. En d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li yolun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; \u00f6zellikle ABD enflasyonu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelir ve Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ngiltere GSYH verisi daralmay\u0131 do\u011frularsa, haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 1,3300 civar\u0131 deste\u011fi hedefliyoruz. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ile merkez bankas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131y\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131zda, yakla\u015fan veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olarak kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,3300 civar\u0131nda GBP\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, yan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z senaryoda riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, paritenin \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz gibi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde anlaml\u0131 getiri potansiyeli sunar. Alternatif olarak, k\u0131sa baca\u011f\u0131 1,3450 direncinin \u00fczerinde konumland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f al\u0131m (call) kredi spreadi sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc ifade etmenin bir di\u011fer yolu olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin rallisi 1,3400\u2019daki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019da duvara toslad\u0131: GBP\/USD yeniden zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. BRC s\u00fcrprizi s\u00f6n\u00fck kald\u0131; g\u00f6zler ABD T\u00dcFE ve \u0130ngiltere GSYH\u2019de. 1,3350-1,3300 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47642,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49626","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49626","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49626"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49626\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49626"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49626"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49626"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}