USD\/JPY, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 160,00 civar\u0131ndan 160,50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131na y\u00fckseldikten sonra zirvenin biraz alt\u0131nda kapanarak, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n nisan sonundaki yen al\u0131m m\u00fcdahalesini tetikleyen seviyelere geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Rekor d\u00fczeydeki m\u00fcdahale ve may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 takip hamlesi pariteyi yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015f \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck rakam\u201d a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015fti; ancak tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlere ili\u015fkin resm\u00ee uyar\u0131lar\u0131n yaln\u0131zca k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli rahatlama sa\u011flamas\u0131yla bu prim eridi. Y\u00fcksek seyreden ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurarken, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdiye kadar tepkisini s\u00f6zl\u00fc sinyallerle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tuttu.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) 15\u201316 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %1,00\u2019e y\u00fckseltme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 yakla\u015f\u0131k %80 olarak ima ediyor; bu, son otuz y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi olacak. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n nihai 1\u00c7 GSYH verisi %0,3 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,5\u2019e revize edilirken, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme %1,8 oldu; buna kar\u015f\u0131n Fed\u2019in %3,50\u2013%3,75 band\u0131ndaki faiziyle faiz fark\u0131 geni\u015f kalmaya devam ediyor. Grafikte USD\/JPY, 159,00 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n ve 156,00 civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken, Stoch RSI 90\u2019l\u0131 seviyelerde tutunuyor; 160,50\u2019nin hemen \u00fczeri diren\u00e7 konumunda. Odak, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00dcFE verisine kay\u0131yor: beklenti ayl\u0131k %0,5 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,2 (\u00f6nceki %3,8); \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ise ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,9 gelmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Japon yetkililerin yaln\u0131zca alt\u0131 hafta \u00f6nce USD\/JPY \u00e7apraz\u0131 160,50\u2019ye t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi seviyenin ayn\u0131s\u0131na geri d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f durumday\u0131z. Haberlerin, Tokyo\u2019nun nisan ve may\u0131sta yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 trilyon yen harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck ve bu \u00e7aban\u0131n tamam\u0131 art\u0131k silinmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Piyasa, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bl\u00f6f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve \u015fimdilik s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar\u0131 \u201cbo\u015f tehdit\u201d olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yendeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n temel nedeni, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir BoJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n gideremeyece\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz fark\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. Yakla\u015fan BoJ art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla faizin %1,00\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, %3,50\u2019nin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerindeki Fed politika faizinin yan\u0131nda s\u00f6n\u00fck kal\u0131yor. Bu fark, ta\u015f\u0131ma (carry) i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yeni satmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesinin ana nedeni; ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin %4,7\u2019nin \u00fczerinde, Japonya 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin ise yaln\u0131zca %0,3 seviyesinde olmas\u0131nda da bu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm g\u00f6zler, bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketi muhtemelen belirleyecek olan bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisinde. 272 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc may\u0131s istihdam raporu, Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc zaten peki\u015ftirdi. Bug\u00fcn y\u00fcksek bir enflasyon verisi, dolar\u0131n yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine yol a\u00e7abilir ve Japonya\u2019y\u0131 yeniden m\u00fcdahale edip etmeme konusunda karar vermeye zorlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc de\u011ferlendiren yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, 160,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alman\u0131n, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir T\u00dcFE olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 hesapl\u0131 bir risk oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu, 161,00\u2019e do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan k\u00e2r elde etmenin, ayn\u0131 zamanda azami zarar\u0131 tan\u0131mlaman\u0131n bir yolunu sunar. Ancak bu b\u00f6lgede m\u00fcdahale riski son derece y\u00fckseldi\u011fi i\u00e7in, k\u00e2rlar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 realize etmeye haz\u0131r olmak gerekir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, s\u00fcrpriz bir m\u00fcdahale ya da zay\u0131f bir enflasyon verisi endi\u015fesi varsa sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferli bir hedge i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir. Y\u0131l boyunca geri \u00e7ekilmeler al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 oldu; ancak 159,00 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip ucuz, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d put\u2019lar almak, ani ve sert bir ters d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar. B\u00f6ylece Tokyo\u2019nun devreye girmesinden kaynaklanan belirgin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskini y\u00f6netirken, y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini korumak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY yeniden 160,50 e\u015fi\u011finde: Japon m\u00fcdahalesinin etkisi silindi. Petrol ve dev faiz fark\u0131 yeni bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. BoJ %1 ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, g\u00f6zler ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de; opsiyonlarla k\u0131r\u0131lma\/ters d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe haz\u0131rlan\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47883,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49625","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49625"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49625\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47883"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49625"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49625"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49625"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}