Avustralya dolar\u0131, Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda bir helikopterin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik misilleme tehdidinde bulunmas\u0131yla risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n so\u011fumas\u0131 sonucu ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,25 geriledi. AUD\/USD paritesi 0,7005 ile alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 0,7027 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Petrol kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 telafi etse de g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatt\u0131; WTI yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 gerilerken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) ise yataya yak\u0131n tamamlad\u0131. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131na dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s ay\u0131 ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne (T\u00dcFE) \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri, NFIB k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletmeler iyimserlik endeksinin 95,3\u2019e gerileyerek 52 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamas\u0131 olan 98,0\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na indi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; \u015firketlerin %34\u2019\u00fc \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde fiyat art\u0131rmay\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Reuters anketine g\u00f6re 102 ekonomistin yakla\u015f\u0131k %70\u2019i, piyasalar\u0131n 22 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131na ve baz\u0131 FOMC \u00fcyelerinin daha y\u00fcksek faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesine ra\u011fmen, Fed fonlama faizinin y\u0131l\u0131 %3,50\u2013%3,75 band\u0131nda tamamlamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Avustralya\u2019da t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni haziranda yeniden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve NAB, A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir RBA art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini geri \u00e7ekerek, bu y\u0131l \u00fc\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan politika faizinin zirvesini %4,35 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde AUD\/USD, 0,7132 civar\u0131ndaki 50, 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n (SMA) alt\u0131nda 0,7024\u2019e yak\u0131n seyrederken, RSI (14) 36 civar\u0131nda ve y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc; 0,6833 ve 0,6897\u2019den izlenen y\u00fckselen destekler dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki bozulma, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 gibi g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nlendiriyor. ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki artan ticaret gerilimi piyasalar\u0131 tedirgin ederken, bu durum risk i\u015ftah\u0131na duyarl\u0131 para birimlerini do\u011frudan etkiliyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak Avustralya Dolar\u0131, Greenback kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve \u015fu s\u0131ralar 0,6550 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de ana g\u00fcndem kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son T\u00dcFE verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,1 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederek beklenenden daha inat\u00e7\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sundu. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 k\u0131smen so\u011fuyor; a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 8,1 milyona gerilese de, Fed\u2019i temkinli tutacak kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle para piyasalar\u0131nda bu y\u0131l faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlan\u0131rken, baz\u0131 yetkililer bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n daha gerekli olabilece\u011fini dahi dile getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Avustralya\u2019da ise tablo belirgin \u015fekilde farkl\u0131. Son veriler t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin geriledi\u011fini ve perakende sat\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin duraklad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. \u00c7in kaynakl\u0131 ekonomik kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar \u00f6nemli bir unsur olurken, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ara verilebilece\u011fi sinyalini verdi. RBA\u2019n\u0131n A\u011fustos toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar politika faizini %4,35\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da Avustralya dolar\u0131na destek veren \u00f6nemli bir dayana\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u015eahin bir Fed ile beklemeye ge\u00e7en bir RBA aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, AUD\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Avustralya dolar\u0131 \u00fczerine put opsiyonu almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 ilave geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon almak i\u00e7in net bir yol sunuyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, paritenin 0,6500 gibi psikolojik desteklerin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 durumunda, tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskle getiri elde etme imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Mevcut jeopolitik belirsizlik, yaln\u0131zca d\u00f6vizlerde de\u011fil genel olarak daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k beklentisini destekliyor. Opsiyonlar bu beklentiyi i\u015flemeye de imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r; zira uzun opsiyon pozisyonlar\u0131 fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6ne keskin hareketlerinden fayda sa\u011flar. 2018-2019 d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclen ticaret gerilimleri gibi tarihsel \u00f6rnekler, VIX gibi oynakl\u0131k endekslerinin beklenmedik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla aniden s\u0131\u00e7rayabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyip Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131: AUD\/USD alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n dibini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. G\u00f6zler ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de; RBA freni ve teknik bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49624","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49624"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49624\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47694"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}