ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 99,90 civar\u0131nda temkinli seyretti. Piyasalar, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda enflasyonun bir miktar y\u00fckselmesinin beklendi\u011fi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi \u00f6ncesinde pozisyon al\u0131yor. Dolar\u0131n g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki erken zay\u0131flamas\u0131, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinde bir ABD Apache helikopterini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve ABD\u2019nin \u201cbu sald\u0131r\u0131ya yan\u0131t vermesi gerekti\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6ylemesi sonras\u0131 k\u0131smen geri al\u0131nd\u0131. Devam eden fiyatlamalarda petrol ve alt\u0131n bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; alt\u0131n 4.250 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131 ve daha sonra 4.260 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Oysa daha yumu\u015fak ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri ve daha zay\u0131f dolar normalde getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 desteklerdi.<\/p>\n
G10 FX taraf\u0131nda EUR\/USD 1,1550 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken odak ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019deydi; Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) ise Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor. GBP\/USD 1,3390\u2019a do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken USD\/JPY 160,30 civar\u0131nda, %0,15 art\u0131da ve m\u00fcdahale riskiyle ili\u015fkilendirilen seviyelere yak\u0131n seyretti. AUD\/USD, zay\u0131f Westpac T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni verisi sonras\u0131 0,7030\u2019a do\u011fru geriledi. Emtialarda WTI ham petrol, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da olas\u0131 arz kesintisini de\u011ferlendirmesiyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 87,90 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Veri takviminde \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Japonya \u00dcFE, ABD T\u00dcFE ve ABD Federal B\u00fct\u00e7e Dengesi; Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ayl\u0131k GSYH ve ABD \u00dcFE\u2019nin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ABD \u00c7ekirdek \u00dcFE ve haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131; Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise ABD Michigan g\u00fcven endeksi ve enflasyon beklentileriyle birlikte \u00c7in yeni krediler ve M2 para arz\u0131 yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi raporu bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacakken, varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131 genelinde belirgin bir volatiliteye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yoruz. Piyasa, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc (s\u0131cak) bir enflasyon verisine pozisyonlanm\u0131\u015f durumda; bu, FED \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir ve muhtemelen dolar\u0131 destekler. Konsens\u00fcsten k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir sapman\u0131n bile b\u00fcy\u00fck bir yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 tetikleyebilmesi nedeniyle, her iki y\u00f6ne sert bir harekete kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyonlarla haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131yoruz. Bu durum, May\u0131s 2024 T\u00dcFE\u2019nin beklentiden biraz daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelerek %3,3\u2019e inmesinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fclen piyasa sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131na benziyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik tablo, karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor ve g\u00fcvenli liman olarak daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolara destek veriyor. Bu, klasik bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d hareketi; Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 2022 ba\u015f\u0131nda dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fine benzer nitelikte. \u015eimdilik bunu, uzun dolar pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 ya da ani t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flara kar\u015f\u0131 VIX al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunmay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan k\u0131sa vadeli bir kataliz\u00f6r olarak ele al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu gerilime ra\u011fmen alt\u0131ndaki s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k, piyasan\u0131n jeopolitik riskten \u00e7ok faiz oranlar\u0131na odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisi \u015fu anda %4,25\u2019in \u00fczerinde tutunurken, \u00f6zellikle ons fiyat\u0131 4.200 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeyken, getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyeti olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir T\u00dcFE verisinin reel getirileri yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerek alt\u0131n\u0131 daha da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu da alt\u0131n ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir hedge arac\u0131 haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 beklenen ECB ile bug\u00fcnk\u00fc veriyi bekleyen FED aras\u0131nda belirgin bir politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 var. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma Euro\u2019yu desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve EUR\/USD\u2019yi 1,1550 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek tutuyor. EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz; zay\u0131f bir ABD T\u00dcFE verisi, dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131rken ECB\u2019ye ili\u015fkin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131ndan, paritenin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketini h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi nedeniyle son derece teyakkuzday\u0131z; bu seviye 2024\u2019te Japon yetkililerin do\u011frudan piyasa m\u00fcdahalesini tetiklemi\u015fti. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n koordine edebilece\u011fi, birka\u00e7 y\u00fcz piplik ani ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riski olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek. Bu seviyelerde uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 istisnai derecede riskli g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve s\u00fcrpriz bir m\u00fcdahaleye kar\u015f\u0131 ucuz, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alman\u0131n temkinli bir konumlanma oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar ABD T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi diken \u00fcst\u00fcnde: DXY 99,90\u2019da. Trump\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 dalgaland\u0131rd\u0131; alt\u0131n 4.260$\u2019da zay\u0131f. ECB-FED ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 euroyu, USD\/JPY 160 m\u00fcdahale riskini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49621","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49621","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49621"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49621\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49621"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49621"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49621"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}