Donald Trump Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n gece boyunca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinde bir ABD Apache helikopterini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, iki ABD\u2019li havac\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n sulardan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Washington\u2019un kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermekten ba\u015fka se\u00e7ene\u011fi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ise y\u00fckselmek yerine geri \u00e7ekildi; piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, t\u0131rmanmadan ziyade m\u00fczakereyle bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yoluna kayd\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakan\u0131, \u0130ran topraklar\u0131na yak\u0131n yabanc\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin kazalara \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunarak b\u00f6lgeden ayr\u0131lmalar\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131; ancak ham petrolde man\u015fet etkisiyle gelen ilk al\u0131mlar dakikalar i\u00e7inde s\u00f6n\u00fcmlendi.<\/p>\n
Deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan ham petrol\u00fcn tipik olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ge\u00e7mesi nedeniyle, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar daha artan gemi trafi\u011fine ve ge\u00e7i\u015f yolunu yeniden a\u00e7acak bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve anla\u015fmas\u0131 umutlar\u0131na, ayr\u0131ca daha zay\u0131f bir ABD dolar\u0131na odakland\u0131. Fiyatlamada WTI a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta 90 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131ndan 85 dolara yak\u0131n seviyelere geriledi; helikopter haberinin ard\u0131ndan k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 88 dolara do\u011fru s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, ancak h\u0131zla yeniden 86,50-87,00 band\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc ve 87 dolar civar\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Stoch RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nerken aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131na y\u00f6neldi; 88 dolar \u00fczeri bir hareket 90 dolar\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcndeme getirirken, 86,50 alt\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma 85 dolar\u0131n yeniden test edilmesine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n Apache helikopteri olay\u0131na tepkisi her \u015feyi anlat\u0131yor. Do\u011frudan bir askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ra\u011fmen ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 geriledi; bu da art\u0131k daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir sava\u015f riskini fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bunun yerine, oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z tamamen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sonland\u0131racak bir diplomatik anla\u015fma ihtimaline kaym\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Bunun nedeni a\u00e7\u0131k: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 tek belirleyici hik\u00e2ye. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) d\u00fczenli olarak raporlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, g\u00fcnde 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol \u2014k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte biri\u2014 bu dar bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7iyor. M\u00fczakereler s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u00fcrece bu hacim, tekil bir askeri gerilimin etkisini belirgin bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalardaki i\u015flem stratejimiz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, sava\u015f man\u015fetleriyle olu\u015fabilecek her fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rmemiz gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. 88 dolara do\u011fru son y\u00fckseli\u015fin sert bi\u00e7imde sat\u0131lmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n bu anlar\u0131 yeni uzun pozisyonlar in\u015fa etmek i\u00e7in de\u011fil, \u201csava\u015f primi\u201dni t\u00f6rp\u00fclemek i\u00e7in kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor. Bu \u201cs\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 kiralama, sahiplenmeme\u201d deseninin devam etmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrevler perspektifinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu ortam yatay bantta fiyatlamadan veya y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u00f6n\u00fcmlemekten kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejiler i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli. Man\u015fetler ima edilen volatiliteyi yukar\u0131 itti\u011finde, 88-90 dolar diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerinde call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu, rallilerin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131 ve k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m \u00fcretmekte ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00fczerinden prim toplamay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak da bunun benzerlerini g\u00f6rd\u00fck; jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda korku kaynakl\u0131 ilk fiyat hareketleri \u00e7o\u011fu zaman tersine d\u00f6ner. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2022\u2019de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgalinin ard\u0131ndan ilk fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 izleyen y\u0131l i\u00e7inde kayda de\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde gerilemi\u015fti. \u0130ran\u2019la gerilim ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da benzer bir \u201chaberi sat\u201d dinami\u011finin devrede oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle oyun plan\u0131m\u0131z, 85-88 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hafif a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filimle i\u015flem yapmak. 86,50 seviyesini k\u0131sa vadeli destek olarak dikkate alaca\u011f\u0131z; ancak 85 dolar taban\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, daha belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri \u00e7\u00f6kmedik\u00e7e veya bo\u011faz fiilen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a, y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u00f6n\u00fcmlemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Apache vuruldu, ama petrol d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: Piyasa sava\u015f de\u011fil H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de diplomatik \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f fiyatl\u0131yor. WTI 90\u2019dan 87\u2019ye indi; 88\u201390 diren\u00e7, 86,50 alt\u0131 85 testini i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47704,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49620","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49620"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49620\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47704"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}