Alt\u0131n, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da tansiyonun y\u00fckselmesiyle yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 geriledi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir ABD helikopterini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesine Washington\u2019un kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan risk alg\u0131s\u0131 bozuldu. XAU\/USD g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %1,93 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 4.250 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inerken, Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) %15 y\u00fckseldi. New York Times\u2019\u0131n haberine g\u00f6re ABD ile \u0130ran, Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer zenginle\u015ftirme program\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 d\u00f6rt ba\u015fl\u0131k \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 netle\u015ftiriyor; bu durum ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131na giden yolu a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
ABD verilerinde Automatic Data Processing (ADP), d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k hareketli ortalaman\u0131n 35,75 binden 29 bine yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Piyasalar May\u0131s T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne (T\u00dcFE) odakland\u0131: y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,8\u2019den %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ise %2,8\u2019den %2,9\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Swaplar, 2026 sonuna kadar 23 baz puan Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bu s\u0131rada 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi 3,5 baz puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle %4,532\u2019ye gerilerken, Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,09 d\u00fc\u015ferek 99,91\u2019e indi. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan spot fiyat, 4.440 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131; destekler 4.268, ard\u0131ndan 4.200, 4.098 ve 4.000 dolarda bulunuyor. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri ise 4.440, 4.500, 4.550, 4.619 dolardaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ve 4.788 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olarak izleniyor. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskin genellikle alt\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itti\u011fi klasik kal\u0131b\u0131n aksine, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Volatilite endeksi VIX %15 s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015f olsa da, ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00e7eli\u015fkili haberleri tartan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar nedeniyle bu durum metal i\u00e7in destek \u00fcretmedi. Bu belirsizlik, piyasay\u0131 basit \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebinin \u00f6tesindeki unsurlar\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Odak \u015fimdi tamamen yakla\u015fan ABD enflasyon verisine kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. May\u0131s 2026 verileri T\u00dcFE\u2019yi %4,1\u2019de g\u00f6sterdi; bu seviye beklentilerin biraz alt\u0131nda kalsa da inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek ve Fed \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini peki\u015ftiriyor; bu da faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir bask\u0131 unsuru.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm belirgin \u015fekilde ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc; 4.440 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na inilmesini, daha fazla zay\u0131fl\u0131k ihtimaline g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131yor; bu da sat\u0131\u015f taraf\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fc elinde tuttu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. K\u0131sa vadeli hedefler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir sonraki ana destek b\u00f6lgesi olarak 4.200 dolar seviyesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Volatilitedeki s\u0131\u00e7rama dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 temkinli bir strateji olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, fiyat\u0131n 4.200 hatta 4.100 desteklerine do\u011fru gerilemesinden faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunarken, maksimum riski net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bu kadar \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde opsiyonlar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 risk yap\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6zellikle de\u011fer kazan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli bu ay\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131n, uzun vadeli temellerin merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131yla desteklendi\u011fini not ediyoruz. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin (WGC) son raporuna g\u00f6re, k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde rezervlerine 290 ton daha alt\u0131n ekledi. Bu istikrarl\u0131 al\u0131mlar, daha sert bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 frenleyebilecek taban talep olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 korelasyon k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz: alt\u0131n, ABD tahvil getirileri d\u00fc\u015ferken ayn\u0131 anda geriliyor. Bu durum, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz politikas\u0131 tehdidine yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Piyasa Fed\u2019in \u015fahin kalaca\u011f\u0131na inand\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li yolun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok geli\u015fme: Jeopolitik gerilim alt\u0131n\u0131 u\u00e7urmad\u0131, sert satt\u0131. XAU\/USD %2\u2019ye yak\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ferek 4.250 alt\u0131na indi; g\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE\u2019de. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131, 4.200 destek. Fed \u015fahin, VIX y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47795,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49619","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49619"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49619\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49619"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49619"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49619"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}