Amerikan Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimali etraf\u0131nda iyimserlik ile temkin aras\u0131nda gidip gelen i\u015flem ko\u015fullar\u0131 e\u015fli\u011finde g\u00fcn i\u00e7i kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri ald\u0131. Dolar\u0131n alt\u0131 maj\u00f6r para birimi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki seyrini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 99,68 seviyesindeki dipten toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 99,93 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. Jeopolitik man\u015fetler karma\u015f\u0131k kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc: sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik mutabakata ra\u011fmen \u0130srail\u2019in G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair haberler gelirken, \u0130ran ise \u0130srail\u2019in \u201csald\u0131rganl\u0131k\u201d olarak niteledi\u011fi tutumunu devam ettirmesi halinde \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler ABD verileri ve para politikas\u0131na da \u00e7evriliyor. May\u0131s ay\u0131 enflasyon raporu \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; ekonomistler man\u015fet T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (T\u00dcFE) Nisan\u2019daki %3,8 seviyesinden y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesini, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ise %2,8\u2019den %2,9\u2019a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesini bekliyor. Faiz beklentileri oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor: CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %35 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu olas\u0131l\u0131k Ekim i\u00e7in %40\u2019a, Aral\u0131k i\u00e7in %42\u2019ye y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 99,90 civar\u0131nda destek bulmas\u0131yla birlikte, jeopolitik risk ile Fed\u2019in \u015fahin beklentilerinin birle\u015fimini dolarda uzun (long) pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131maya y\u00f6nelik net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerindeki gelgitli yap\u0131, riski tan\u0131mlamak i\u00e7in opsiyon kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131ndan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla DXY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki s\u00fcrekli sal\u0131n\u0131m, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na bir varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor. CBOE Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (VIX) \u015fu anda 19 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da kritik geli\u015fmeler \u00f6ncesinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 tedirginli\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon verisi veya Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131nda her iki y\u00f6nde de k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mdan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacak \u015fekilde EUR\/USD paritesinde straddle stratejisi alarak sert fiyat hareketine pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki gerilim, enerji fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir risk olu\u015fturuyor. Herhangi bir askeri eylemin, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78 dolar civar\u0131ndaki mevcut seviyelerden fiyatlar\u0131 kolayl\u0131kla 90 dolara ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fi beklentisiyle WTI \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak ham petrole maruziyetimizi art\u0131r\u0131yoruz. 2019\u2019daki benzer b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalardan gelen tarihsel \u00f6rnekler, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bu t\u00fcr tehditlere ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verebildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan T\u00dcFE raporu, piyasan\u0131n %4,2\u2019ye h\u0131zlanma bekledi\u011fi kritik bir kataliz\u00f6r konumunda. Beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelecek bir veri, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek Aral\u0131k i\u00e7in %42 olan art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla %50\u2019nin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r. Bu etkinlik boyunca pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 koruyoruz; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir enflasyon verisi, dolara ikinci bir destek r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
K\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm nedeniyle daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 da korunuyoruz. Artan jeopolitik gerilimler ve s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan para politikas\u0131 kombinasyonu, tarihsel olarak hisse senetleri i\u00e7in olumsuz bir zemin olu\u015fturur. Bu nedenle olas\u0131 bir riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk-off) sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6ylerimizi korumak \u00fczere S&P 500 \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: DXY, ABD-\u0130ran umutlar\u0131 ve Ortado\u011fu gerilimi aras\u0131nda 99,90\u2019da tutunuyor. \u00c7ar\u015famba T\u00dcFE %4,2 bekleniyor; Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckselirken DXY\/petrol call, EURUSD straddle, S&P put \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49618","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49618","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49618"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49618\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49618"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49618"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49618"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}