{"id":49616,"date":"2026-06-10T01:05:53","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T01:05:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/yari-iletken-endeksindeki-satis-dalgasi-15-000e-olasi-bir-atak-oncesinde-elliott-dalga-duzeltmesine-isaret-ediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-10T01:05:53","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T01:05:53","slug":"yari-iletken-endeksindeki-satis-dalgasi-15-000e-olasi-bir-atak-oncesinde-elliott-dalga-duzeltmesine-isaret-ediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/yari-iletken-endeksindeki-satis-dalgasi-15-000e-olasi-bir-atak-oncesinde-elliott-dalga-duzeltmesine-isaret-ediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Yar\u0131 \u0130letken Endeksi\u2019ndeki sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131, 15.000\u2019e olas\u0131 bir atak \u00f6ncesinde Elliott Dalga d\u00fczeltmesine i\u015faret ediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>26 May\u0131s tarihli yar\u0131 iletken endeksi (SOX) notunda, Elliott Dalga Prensibi (EWP) \u00e7er\u00e7evesi 1., 3. ve 5. dalgalar aras\u0131ndaki Fibonacci ili\u015fkilerini kullanarak daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck 5. Dalga\u2019y\u0131 (W-5) 13.400-14.000 dolar band\u0131na hedeflerken, bu b\u00f6lge g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 W-iv\u2019in yakla\u015f\u0131k 9.600 dolara do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye i\u015faret ediyordu. Endeks 3 Haziran\u2019da 13.998 dolarda zirve yapt\u0131 ve sonraki d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnde %15,9 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 11.900 dolara geriledi. Bu hareket, k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 3. dalgan\u0131n (W-iii) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen aral\u0131kla uyumlu kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, oda\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ye\u015fil dalgaya b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtilen geli\u015fmekte olan k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 4. Dalga\u2019ya (W-iv) \u00e7eviriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Daha geni\u015f say\u0131mda, daha \u00f6nce belirtilen mavi %161,8 uzatma seviyesine ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131; k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 W-iii, 13.336 dolardaki %161,80 seviyesini 662 puan a\u015farak ge\u00e7ti. W-iv i\u00e7in yayg\u0131n bir hedef mavi %100,0 seviyesidir; 9.523 dolardaki bu seviye, 662 puan eklendi\u011finde yakla\u015f\u0131k 10.185 dolarda olas\u0131 bir duraksamaya i\u015faret ediyor ve 10.390-11.490 dolar hedef b\u00f6lgesiyle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bir sonraki bacak olan k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 W-v ise ideal biti\u015f noktas\u0131n\u0131 15.000 +\/- 1.000 dolar civar\u0131nda tan\u0131ml\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<h3>Dalga Analizi ve K\u0131sa Vadeli G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h3>\n<p>Yar\u0131 iletken endeksinde 3 Haziran zirvesinden gelen son %15,9\u2019luk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131n\u0131n sonu de\u011fil, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir d\u00fczeltme olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu hareket, 14.000 dolar seviyesini ge\u00e7ici bir geri \u00e7ekilme i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f noktas\u0131 olarak i\u015faretleyen Elliott Dalga modelimizle uyumlu. Son veriler, CBOE NDX Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VXN) 22\u2019nin \u00fczerine y\u00fckselerek \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu durum yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 tedirginli\u011fini teyit ediyor ve d\u00fczeltme evresi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, endeksin 10.185 ile 11.490 dolar b\u00f6lgesini hedeflemesiyle, haziran sonu ve temmuz boyunca a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn devam\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu da, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in yar\u0131 iletken ETF\u2019lerinde temmuz veya a\u011fustos vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (put) de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak, bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda SOX\u2019ta 2021 sonundakine benzer h\u0131zl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler, taban olu\u015fturmadan \u00f6nce s\u0131kl\u0131kla %20 d\u00fczeltmeye kadar derinle\u015fti.<\/p>\n<h3>Bo\u011fa Devam Senaryosu i\u00e7in Strateji ve Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n<p>Endeks destek hedefimize yakla\u015f\u0131rken, stratejimizi \u00e7evirmek \u00fczere bir dip olu\u015fumuna dair sinyalleri izleyece\u011fiz. Destek teyit edildi\u011finde odak, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde 15.000 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli \u00f6ng\u00f6ren beklenen be\u015finci dalgaya kayacak. Bu uzun vadeli iyimser g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ge\u00e7en hafta yay\u0131mlanan Yar\u0131 \u0130letken End\u00fcstrisi Birli\u011fi (SIA) verileriyle de destekleniyor; veriler, yapay zek\u00e2 ve otomotiv sekt\u00f6rlerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep sayesinde 2026 i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel sat\u0131\u015flarda %13,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu d\u00fczeltme dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n daha karma\u015f\u0131k hale gelebilece\u011fini kabul etmek gerekiyor; bu nedenle risk y\u00f6netimi kritik. Zamanlama hatas\u0131 durumunda potansiyel kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in, \u00e7\u0131plak (naked) sat\u0131m almak yerine sat\u0131m bor\u00e7 spread\u2019leri (put debit spread) gibi tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli stratejiler kullan\u0131labilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, beklenen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken maruziyeti de s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>SOX 14.000\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fc, %15,9 d\u00fczeltme ba\u015flad\u0131: Elliott\u2019a g\u00f6re bu bo\u011fa sonu de\u011fil. Hedef 10.185\u201311.490 destek band\u0131; sonras\u0131 15.000\u00b11.000 W-5 i\u00e7in dip sinyali ve riskli put spread\u2019ler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47715,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49616","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49616","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49616"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49616\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49616"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49616"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49616"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}